Deutsche Bank economists report highlights a strong rally in the S&P 500, which has risen in 9 of the last 10 sessions and now trades just below its record high. The authors attribute the move to easing geopolitical fears, lower Oil prices, and improved risk sentiment, with volatility indicators and credit spreads also tightening.

Equities supported by easing stress gauges

“Given all that, US markets put in a strong performance, as growing hopes for a ceasefire and lower oil prices helped to support bonds and equities. So the S&P 500 (+1.18%) closed just shy of its record high from late-January, having now risen for 9 of the last 10 sessions. That was powered by the Magnificent 7 (+5.49%), which saw its strongest performance in the last two weeks, although the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.32%) also advanced.”

“Indeed, yesterday saw the S&P 500 (+1.18%) close just shy of its record high, meaning that the index is now up +9.8% over the last 10 sessions. For reference, that’s now even faster than the bounceback after Liberation Day last year, and we haven’t seen a run of gains that quick over 10 sessions since the post-Covid bounceback in April 2020.”

“The hope of lower energy prices helped consumer cyclicals such as Media (+3.5%), Autos (+3.4%), and Consumer Discretionary Retail (+2.8%) to outperform, while Energy (-2.2%) and Banks (-0.9%) lagged. Meanwhile, there were further signs that the financial stress was easing more broadly, with the VIX index (-0.8pts) falling to just 18.36pts, its lowest since late-February, before the strikes began. In addition, US HY spreads (-11bps) fell to their tightest level in two months, at 268bps.”

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