The British pound hovered just below $1.31 as traders awaited the UK’s Nov. 26 budget. Finance minister Rachel Reeves is expected to find tens of billions of pounds to meet her fiscal rules, and reports that she might avoid tax hikes briefly unsettled markets. The OBR will reportedly cut growth forecasts for 2026 and beyond, widening a £20–30 billion hole in the public finances and increasing pressure for tax rises. Recent data underline the challenge: borrowing is at a record high outside the pandemic, business activity has stalled, retail sales fell sharply, and consumer sentiment weakened. Meanwhile, inflation eased to 3.6% in October, boosting expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates next month. Markets now see an 80% chance of a 25-bp cut in December.

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