US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by around 60,000 in December 2025, slightly below the 64,000 jobs added in November, in what should be the first report largely unaffected by distortions from the government shutdown in the fall. The unemployment rate is forecast to edge down to 4.5% from November’s four-year high of 4.6%. Average hourly earnings are projected to increase by 0.3% month over month, accelerating from 0.1% previously, while annual wage growth is seen ticking up to 3.6% from 3.5%. The data are likely to show a labor market expanding only modestly, as employers remain cautious amid tariff uncertainty, tighter immigration, and the rise of artificial intelligence. Some experts argue even recent weak job gains may be overstated, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noting the economy may have been losing roughly 20,000 jobs per month since April.

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