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Bonds

UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Tops 5%

The UK 10-year gilt yield rose above 5% as a sharp increase in oil prices revived concerns over inflation and the outlook for monetary policy. Brent crude climbed above $89 per barrel as tensions between the US and Iran intensified and prospects for a Middle East agreement became less certain. President Donald Trump has issued tougher demands on Tehran, while Iran continues to seek reparations as part of negotiations to end the conflict. Higher energy costs are particularly concerning for the UK, a net oil importer that has struggled with persistent inflation, increasing expectations that the Bank of England may need to keep rates higher for longer. Markets are now more than fully pricing in a rate hike by December and another by spring. Meanwhile, UK retail sales rose 1.3% year-on-year in July, below the 12-month average, while Barclays data showed consumer spending increased 2%, its strongest growth this year.

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