UK 10-year gilt yields fell to 4.78%, their lowest since April 17, as oil prices dropped sharply on the prospect of a preliminary US-Iran peace deal. A framework agreement, including lifting the US blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, is set to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, though unresolved details remain around Iran’s nuclear program. Meanwhile, markets widely expect Bank of England interest rates to remain at 3.75% in a split vote on Thursday, as policymakers balance inflationary pressures against a weakening jobs market and sluggish economic growth. Traders have scaled back their bets, now pricing in just one rate hike this year, with a quarter-point increase not fully priced in until December. Additionally, Thursday’s special election in the Makerfield constituency may influence expectations around Labour leadership and future fiscal strategy, with Andy Burnham indicating he would enter any leadership contest if he wins this week.

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