UK 10-year gilt yields rose above 5%, nearing levels last seen in 2008, as investors anticipated potential Bank of England interest rate hikes to tackle inflation. Attention is also on Britain’s municipal elections this Thursday, with polls suggesting a possible setback for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. The yield increase reflects ongoing global energy disruptions, with oil prices at four-year highs and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed due to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Markets are now pricing in nearly three quarter-point rate hikes from the Bank of England this year. However, uncertainty remains after the BoE held rates steady, citing the wide-ranging economic impacts of the Iran war, from scenarios requiring aggressive rate rises to those needing no action. Governor Andrew Bailey described the decision as a “difficult judgement call,” warning that waiting for clearer inflationary pressures could risk a delayed response.

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