UK natural gas futures dropped below 125 pence per therm, pulling back from a three-year high of 146.3 on March 9, after President Donald Trump signalled that the war with Iran could end soon. Additional reassurance came from G7 finance ministers, who said they are prepared to release strategic oil reserves if needed to stabilise supply. However, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, while operations in Qatar have been suspended. Analysts warn that a prolonged halt in Qatari production could wipe out most of the global LNG supply surplus expected in 2026. Europe’s gas market is particularly exposed because storage levels were heavily drawn down during winter, meaning countries must now secure large volumes of LNG to refill reserves ahead of next winter. This could trigger strong competition with Asian buyers for limited cargoes. The UK is especially vulnerable due to its small storage capacity and strong reliance on imports.

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