The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was below 4.38% on Monday, the least since early May as lower energy prices dampened inflationary risks and the likelihood of a hawkish response by the Federal Reserve. Wholesale crude oil and fuel prices maintained the sharp decline from the end of June amid evidence that tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz are being restored. The improving supply for key energy commodities countered the price pressures that drove a large portion of the FOMC to project one or more rate hikes this year following their meeting this month. Core inflation gauges had already reflected rising underlying inflation above the 3% level, while jobs data continued to suggest robust labor market conditions. Still, long-term yields did not drop at the extent that energy prices did. Fed Chairman Warsh repeatedly campaigned for the Fed to reduce its holdings of Treasury notes and bonds, and started a task force to investigate whether a move is warranted.

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