The US economy is expected to have added 110K jobs in June 2026, marking the smallest monthly increase in employment in four months, following three consecutive months of stronger-than-expected gains in nonfarm payrolls. In May, payrolls rose by 172K, although some analysts suggest that hiring related to the World Cup may have temporarily boosted employment. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.3% for a fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, matching May’s pace, while annual wage growth is forecast to edge up to 3.5% from 3.4%. Although payroll growth is expected to moderate, the June employment report is still likely to point to a resilient labour market.

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