US natural gas futures dropped 3.6% to $2.52 per MMBtu, the lowest since October 2024, as mild weather forecasts through early May keep demand subdued and allow continued strong storage injections. Warmer-than-normal spring conditions have already pushed inventories to an estimated 8% above seasonal norms for the week ended April 24, up from 7% the previous week. Even with slightly cooler temperatures expected into early May, demand is unlikely to rise significantly as heating needs remain limited and cooling demand has yet to pick up. On the supply side, output has declined by about 4.1 bcfd over the past 18 days to an 11-week low of 108.1 bcfd, with lower prices prompting producers such as EQT to curb production. Meanwhile, LNG feedgas flows have increased to 18.9 bcfd in April, near record levels. For the week, gas prices fell about 5.8% after a 1% gain in the previous period.

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