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Arabica coffee futures have fluctuated in recent weeks, before consolidating below $3.10 per pound to their lowest level in a month. Still, the market continued to be supported by tight supplies, uncertainty over the quality of Brazil’s harvest, coffee growers’ reluctance to sell, and weather-related risks associated with El Niño. Although a record Brazilian harvest of more than 70 million bags is expected this season, the balance between supply and demand remains tight, particularly in the higher-quality. Traders remain concerned that rains in key producing regions, including Minas Gerais and São Paulo, during June and July, may have affected the quality of part of the crop. ICE arabica coffee fell to a 2.5-year low of 251,417 bags as of August 7, down sharply from the 754,516 bags last year. At the same time, Brazilian producers continue to sell gradually, limiting immediate coffee availability. Meanwhile, the developing “super” El Niño remains a key risk to next year’s harvest.
