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AUD/USD Price – Consolidates around 0.6850 as bears await break below 100-day SMA
- AUD/USD enters a bearish consolidation phase near a two-month low set on Monday.
- The hawkish RBA Minutes and Iran de-escalation hopes offer some support to the pair.
- The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and backs the case for deeper losses.
The AUD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Tuesday and consolidates its recent losses registered over the past week or so, to its lowest level in over two months, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around mid-0.6800s, nearly unchanged for the day, amid mixed fundamental cues.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) draws some support from the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting Minutes, showing that board members agreed further tightening would likely be needed. Adding to this, reviving hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East boosts investors’ confidence, prompting a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from the year-to-date and further benefiting the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices find some support near the rising 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 0.6820 area, which tempers the downside. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays below its signal line in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips toward 36, both reinforcing fading bullish momentum and favoring further corrective pressure.
The 100-day SMA is closely followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-March move higher, around the 0.6800 round figure, which should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Some follow-through selling below the recent lows in the 0.6880–0.6850 region would turn the focus toward the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.6713. A clear break under 0.6713 would open the path toward the 78.6% level at 0.6586 and signal a deeper fall.
On the flip side, the initial resistance emerges at the 50% retracement at 0.6803, now acting as a nearby pivot, with stronger resistance at the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.6892. A sustained recovery above 0.6892 would expose the 23.6% retracement at 0.7003, where sellers previously capped advances. Nevertheless, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the AUD/USD pair holds well below the 23.6% Fibo. retracement near the 0.7000 psychological mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD daily chart
