Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 4.8%, climbing off from four-month lows as markets continued to wager on near-term US rate hikes, while paring back expectations for further tightening at home. The sharp de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices back to pre-war levels, easing inflation risks and prompting markets to scale back expectations for further rate hikes in Australia. An August move by the Reserve Bank is now priced in at just 15% chance, while markets see a 50% probability that the tightening cycle has ended. Meanwhile, bond markets came under pressure after US Treasury yields surged as investors increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of Thursday’s crucial jobs report, with a September move now almost fully priced in. This came despite Fed Chair Kevin Warsh saying inflation expectations had eased over the past month.

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