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Bonds

Australia 10Y Yield Rises Near 15-Year Highs

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose toward 5.4%, near its highest level since mid-2011, tracking a global bond selloff fueled by strong US economic data, higher oil prices, and hawkish central-bank expectations. Strong US business activity has increased expectations for another Fed rate hike, pushing Treasury yields sharply higher. Rising oil prices also added to inflationary pressures after Iran cast doubt on progress in Middle East peace talks, dimming hopes of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In Australia, a mixed labor-market report reduced the odds of a September RBA rate hike. The jobless rate rose to 4.6%, above forecasts of a steady 4.5% and the highest since late 2021, while the economy added 39,500 jobs versus a predicted 20,000 increase. Still, markets price an 86% chance of a 25-bp hike to 4.60% in September, but down from 95% before the jobs report, while the odds of another move fall to 44% for November.

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