The Philippines’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 7.2% in mid-May, moving back toward an over three-and-a-half-year high, as peso bonds continued to weaken on large rate hike expectations. This followed headline inflation surging to a three-year high of 7.2% in April, well above the central bank’s 5.6%–6.4% forecast range, reflecting rapidly intensifying price pressures driven by higher energy costs and the country’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports. As a result, markets have strengthened bets on a 50 bps rate hike at the June 18 policy meeting, driving a broader selloff in sovereign bonds. Philippine debt has since posted losses exceeding 10% for dollar-based investors since the start of the Iran war, making it the worst performer in emerging Asia, according to a Bloomberg index. Weak demand at recent government bond auctions further reinforces the softening investor appetite for sovereign debt.

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