Brent: Iran talks keep risk premium in focus – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that negotiations between Iran and Oman over a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz remain finely balanced, with Tehran linking any lasting arrangement to broader demands on the US. Brent Oil has rebounded from midweek lows but still ended last week sharply lower, as markets priced partial de-escalation in Middle East tensions.

Hormuz negotiations steer Oil risk

“The appointment of former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaee to head the Supreme National Security Council reinforces hard-line influence at the centre of decision-making, even as Iranian officials insist they are close to an agreement with Oman on a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has described the talks as being in their final stages, but Tehran has stressed that any technical agreement on shipping routes would not by itself lead to a full reopening of the waterway.”

“Reuters and other major outlets report that Iran continues to tie any lasting Hormuz arrangement to wider demands on the US, including sanctions relief, compensation for war damage and security guarantees.”

“Investors priced de-escalation in Middle East tensions as negotiations between Iran and Oman progressed, though some of that optimism then faded as details of a potential agreement on Thursday raised questions over whether the US would accept the deal and just how free-flowing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be.”

“Brent crude rebounded from lows of around $78/bbl on Wednesday, it still finished the week down -7.29% to $83.55/bbl (+1.29% on Friday).”

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