BTC faces mounting pressure as supply overhang, weak demand weigh on market structure

• Bitcoin investors are holding 8.4 million BTC at a loss, signaling strong selling potential.
• Long-term holders are realizing losses of nearly $200 million daily, suggesting the market is stabilizing and not yet ready for a recovery.
• Derivatives indicate waning bullish sentiment and increasing defensive positioning among derivatives traders.

Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range between $60,000 to $70,000, lacking a clear catalyst for a decisive breakout, according to Glassnode analysts in a report on Wednesday.

At the core of BTC’s current trend is the Total Supply in Loss metric, which tracks the volume of BTC last moved at prices above the current market level. 

Using the 30-day simple moving average (SMA), Glassnode highlights that approximately 8.4 million BTC are currently held at a loss. This level mirrors conditions seen in mid-2022, when a similar overhang required extensive redistribution before the market stabilized.

“Historically, resolving a supply overhang of this scale has required a meaningful redistribution of coins from loss-realizing holders to new buyers at lower prices. The 2022 bear market precedent is instructive,” Glassnode stated.

Long-Term holders’ supply continues to weigh on Bitcoin

The report added that the 30-day SMA of Long-Term Holder realized losses has steadily increased since November, reaching approximately $200 million per day.

While this wave of loss realization is necessary for market resets, Glassnode noted that a more sustainable recovery would require selling pressure to decline to below $25 million daily.

Glassnode also cited that the Coinbase spot volume data has turned marginally positive on a 30-day basis. The flip indicates that buyers are beginning to absorb supply following a prolonged period of selling earlier in the year.

However, the modest data suggest that demand is still cautious rather than conviction-driven.

Corporate participation is also narrowing, with Marathon Digital reducing its Bitcoin exposure after selling approximately 15,000 BTC. The move leaves Strategy as one of the few consistent large-scale buyers, although the treasury did not add to its holdings last week.

The decline reflects that the corporate treasury bet is becoming more concentrated, potentially weakening its impact on Bitcoin’s price stability.

“The corporate bid remains present, but it is less broad and therefore a less robust source of structural support than during earlier phases of the cycle,” the report stated.

In derivatives markets, indicators point to fading bullish conviction and a growing defensive bias.

The Perpetual Market Directional Premium has compressed toward neutral levels, signaling a lack of strong directional positioning.

Despite the surface-level calm, risk signals are still building. The 25-delta skew, a measure of market sentiment, has risen, particularly in longer-dated options, suggesting that traders are increasingly hedging against potential declines.

“The market is not aggressively pricing large moves, but it is consistently assigning more weight to downside risks across the curve, pointing to a sustained defensive bias rather than a temporary reaction,” Glassnode wrote.

Additionally, dealer gamma exposure has turned negative below the current price range, spanning from around $68,000 into the high $50,000 level. In such conditions, market makers tend to sell into weakness, amplifying downside moves if selling pressure accelerates.

Bitcoin is trading near $67,000 at the time of writing.

Register a Revolut Business Account