Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is speaking at the press conference, explaining the reasons behind leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.35% after the June monetary policy meeting.

Bullock is responding to media questions as part of a new reporting format for the central bank that began last year.

Key quotes from the RBA Press Conference 

Inflation remains too high.

Flow of data consistent with our expectations.

Reports of a peace deal in the Middle East are welcome news.

Does not rule out further tightening if needed.

Too early to say if the cooling housing market will help on policy.

We are not forecasting an economic contraction this quarter.

Demand needs to slow to get inflation down.

Need low and stable inflation for the economy to grow at the trend.

Did not consider raising rates.

Board still concerned about inflation, but in a better position.

Still risks on upside for inflation.

Monthly data are volatile, need to wait for more figures.

Can’t rule out that we might have to do more on rates.

Current oil prices are in line with our baseline forecasts.

Developing story, please refresh for updates.

---

This section below was published at 04:30 GMT to cover the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy announcements and the initial market reaction.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced on Tuesday that it held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% after concluding its June monetary policy meeting. The decision aligned with the market expectations.

This is the first pause following three consecutive 25 basis points (bps) rate hikes earlier this year.

Summary of the RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Today’s decision was unanimous.

The latest data show that headline and underlying inflation are still too high.

The board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions.

Short-term measures of inflation expectations have eased but remain higher than earlier in the year.

It will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome, including increasing the cash rate target further if required.

There continue to be heightened uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation.

Financial conditions have tightened this year in response to three increases in the cash rate target.

Inflation is likely to remain high for some time.

The board remains focused on ensuring that inflation does not become embedded once the impulse from higher oil prices has passed through.

Global oil supply issues will take some time to resolve, maintaining upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation.

AUD/USD reaction to the RBA interest rate decision

The Australian Dollar holds losses in an immediate reaction to the RBA’s decision. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is down 0.27% on the day at 0.7155.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.11%	0.15%	-0.02%	0.16%	0.30%	0.37%	0.14%
EUR	-0.11%		0.05%	-0.09%	0.06%	0.19%	0.26%	0.04%
GBP	-0.15%	-0.05%		-0.15%	0.02%	0.14%	0.23%	0.00%
JPY	0.02%	0.09%	0.15%		0.16%	0.29%	0.37%	0.16%
CAD	-0.16%	-0.06%	-0.02%	-0.16%		0.13%	0.19%	-0.03%
AUD	-0.30%	-0.19%	-0.14%	-0.29%	-0.13%		0.09%	-0.13%
NZD	-0.37%	-0.26%	-0.23%	-0.37%	-0.19%	-0.09%		-0.22%
CHF	-0.14%	-0.04%	-0.00%	-0.16%	0.03%	0.13%	0.22%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

---

This section below was published on June 16 at 22:45 GMT as a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy announcements.

• The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the interest rate steady at 4.35% in June.
• RBA Governor Bullock’s words to be dissected for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.
• The Australian Dollar is primed for intense volatility on the RBA policy announcement.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% when it announces its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, marking a pause after three consecutive rate hikes delivered earlier this year.

The decision will be announced at 04:30 GMT, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference will follow at 05:30 GMT.

The RBA policy announcement and Bullock’s presser could trigger a big reaction in the Australian Dollar (AUD), as markets eagerly await signals on the bank’s path forward on interest rates.

RBA pauses, end of the tightening cycle?

While inflation remains stubbornly elevated and continues to pressure households, a growing number of signals suggest the Australian economy may be losing momentum. Higher borrowing costs have started to weigh on consumer demand and early signs of labour market cooling are emerging.

Data from the Australian Bureau ​of Statistics (ABS) showed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in the first three months of the year, compared with a forecast of 0.5% and decelerating from 0.9% in the prior quarter. Annual ​growth steadied at 2.5% in the same period, below the 2.7% expected.

Meanwhile, the country’s Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.5% in April, the highest since September. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 0.4% in April from 1.1% in March, while the annual pace also declined to 4.2% from 4.6%.

The central bank, therefore, finds itself balancing inflation that remains above target and an economy that appears to be slowing down.

“Markets now imply just a 22% probability of an August RBA hike, down from 80% a month ago, and just 11 bps of tightening this year as higher interest rates have started to slow economic activity,” per Reuters.

The shift in sentiment accelerated after National Australia Bank (NAB) ditched its peers by suggesting the RBA’s next move could eventually be a rate cut rather than another hike.

Three of the four major banks, NAB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 4.35% for the remainder of 2026.

For now, policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious tone, acknowledging persistent inflation pressures while emphasizing increased uncertainty surrounding growth, employment and household spending.

The main focus will be on whether the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is enough to calm the central bank’s inflation concerns and to signal a pause in the current tightening cycle.

“It’ll be about the little clues as to whether the cycle is over or it’s still alive – that’s going to be really important for both the Aussie and the kiwi markets,” said Imre Speizer, a strategist at Westpac.

How will the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision impact AUD/USD?

The AUD has rebounded firmly against the US Dollar (USD) in the countdown to the RBA event risk.

The key market takeaway will therefore be any change in the RBA’s forward guidance. A statement retaining a tightening bias could revive expectations for an August rate increase and support the Aussie Dollar.

Conversely, any indication that the central bank is becoming more concerned about growth risks could reinforce market pricing for a prolonged pause and weigh down on the AUD.

Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, highlights key technical levels for trading AUD/USD following the policy announcement.

“The pair is challenging the key 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the road to recovery. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced off the oversold territory, but remains in the bearish zone, suggesting that sellers are likely to retain control.”

“On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA near 0.7084, followed by the 21-day SMA around 0.7116 and the 50-day SMA close to 0.7143, levels that would need to be reclaimed to ease the current downside pressure. On the downside, the 200-day SMA at roughly 0.6844 offers the next major support, with a sustained break below that long-term average likely opening the door to a deeper retracement,” Dhwani adds.