Bund Yield Eases but Posts Strongest Monthly Gain Since March

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield edged lower to 3.15% on Friday, tracking a decline in oil prices as energy supplies continued to move through key maritime routes despite limited progress in US-Iran talks. Even so, the benchmark yield gained 28 basis points in July, its largest monthly increase since March, while the two-year Bund yield climbed more than 22 basis points, as growing concerns over the longer-term inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict prompted investors to increase bets on further ECB rate hikes. Money markets now fully price the European Central Bank’s deposit rate at 2.75% by early 2027 following stronger-than-expected GDP data and persistent inflationary pressures across the euro area. After raising interest rates in June and leaving them unchanged in July, the ECB is now expected to deliver two additional rate hikes, with the first potentially coming as early as September.


