Bund Yields Rise on Hormuz Uncertainty

German 10-year Bund yields edged higher to 3.25% as oil prices paused their recent sell-off, with prospects for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz still uncertain despite conflicting signals from Iran. Qatar’s prime minister is due in Tehran on Thursday to revive US-Iran diplomacy, with the two sides still divided over control of the key waterway. In money markets, traders are pricing slightly more than 40 bps of additional ECB tightening by year-end, with a September rate hike almost fully priced in. Reuters reported that ECB policymakers are prepared to raise rates at their September meeting to contain the economic fallout from the Iran war, although they remain reluctant to signal further tightening beyond that. Eurozone bond yields reached multi-year highs last week as investors grew increasingly concerned about the inflationary impact of higher energy prices, as well as rising government spending.


