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Bonds

UK Gilt Yields Ease as Rate Hike Bets Shift to 2027

UK 10-year gilt yields edged down toward 5% at the end of August, remaining close to the two-week low of 4.943% reached on Wednesday, as falling Brent crude prices eased inflation concerns, prompting markets to push expectations for the next Bank of England rate hike into 2027 from late 2026. LSEG data showed around 24 bps of tightening priced in by December and 36 bps by the February 2027 meeting. Less than 4 bps is priced in for the BoE’s September meeting, implying about a 15% chance of a hike. Most economists have long expected the BoE to keep rates unchanged at 3.75% this year, although markets had been pricing a hike amid concerns over a potential escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Meanwhile, UK inflation rose to 2.9% in July, driven by higher household energy bills, and is expected to increase further toward year-end, while the labour market remained subdued. Investors now await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

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