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The European stock market opened the new week in the green, recovering part of the recent correction. Friday’s remark by Donald Trump that upcoming retaliatory tariffs could be somewhat flexible sparked some risk appetite. On the other hand, the bullish opening slowed down with the release of mixed PMI indicators, which still raise doubts about the sentiment in European business.
Despite the bullish start, the EU50 contract hesitantly bounced off the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA30, light purple). Source: xStation5
Eurozone Activity: New Successes, Old Challenges
The composite PMI for the Eurozone rose to a seven-month high, but still fell below market expectations (50.4, forecast: 50.8, previous: 50.2). The rise in March was mainly driven by the awakening industrial sector—the PMI for industry was the only one to exceed forecasts (48.7 vs 48.3), and the industrial production subindex reached a nearly three-year high (50.7).
Germany saw the biggest rise in orders since May 2022, sparking signs of recovery of a domestic demand. However, similar optimism cannot be said for France, where both industry and services are shrinking due to weak consumer. Between two biggest EU economies, there’s also a divering outlook, with Germany experiencing a post-elecotral resurgance of optimism and French businesses remining pessimitic. In the entire Eurozone, inflationary pressure continued to decline, and employment stabilized after months of weakening demand for workers.
Retaliatory Tariffs: Trump Not So Unyielding?
The planned wide retaliatory tariffs on April 2nd bring Donald Trump’s trade war back into focus, but the “flexibility” suggested on Friday contrasts with the hardline stance of no exceptions from one to two months ago. While market uncertainty remains at record highs, investors seem to be now pricing in Trump’s trade policy with less fear.
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