Morning trading in global financial markets is dominated by a sharp resurgence of geopolitical risk. Following reports of fresh overnight US military strikes on military targets and drones in Iran, crude oil prices sharply rebounded, rallying by nearly 2-3%. These tensions translated into a clear deterioration of sentiment in Asia, where major equity indices recorded losses, snapping a previous wave of optimism. An additional hawkish factor for the markets comes from Fed officials’ comments (Lisa Cook declared readiness to hike interest rates if inflation forces it). Later today, investors’ attention will focus on key US macroeconomic releases, including the revised Q1 GDP reading , the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge and weekly labor market data. In the Eurozone, sentiment and business climate indices will also make waves. In the evening, the EIA crude oil inventories report will significantly impact energy commodities. Heightened volatility is primarily expected across US dollar (USD) currency pairs, crude oil contracts (WTI and Brent), and US stock indices.

🌍 Macroeconomic Calendar

• 08:10, Eurozone – ECB President Speech
• 08:30, Hungary – Unemployment Rate. Consensus: 4.5%. Previous: 4.5%.
• 09:00, Poland – BIEC Leading Economic Indicator. Consensus: —. Previous: 174.2 pts.
• 11:00, Eurozone – Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). Consensus: 92.6 pts. Previous: 93.0 pts.
• 11:00, Eurozone – Consumer Confidence. Consensus: —. Previous: -20.0 pts.
• 14:30, USA – Revised GDP Growth. Consensus: 2.0%. Previous: 0.5%.
• 14:30, USA – Core PCE Inflation (YoY) (April). Consensus: 3.3% y/y. Previous: 3.2% y/y.
• 14:30, USA – PCE Inflation (YoY) (April). Consensus: 3.8% y/y. Previous: 3.5% y/y.
• 14:30, USA – Private Consumption. Consensus: 1.7%. Previous: 1.9%.
• 14:30, USA – Jobless Claims. Consensus: 209K. Previous: 209K.
• 14:30, USA – 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims. Consensus: 211.00K. Previous: 202.50K.
• 14:55, USA – Speech by New York Fed President (John Williams)
• 16:00, USA – New Home Sales. Consensus: 660K. Previous: 682K.
• 17:00, USA – EIA Crude Oil Inventories. Consensus: -4.4m bbl. Previous: -7.86m bbl.

💰 Selected Corporate Earnings

• Costco Wholesale Corp. (after market close)
• Dell Technologies (after market close)
• PKN Orlen (before market open)
• Dollar Tree Inc. (before market open)
• Royal Bank of Canada (before market open)
• Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (before market open)

📈 Three Markets to Watch

• Crude Oil (WTI / Brent): A sharp resurgence of Middle East tensions following overnight US airstrikes in Iran led to a strong rebound in oil prices. An official EIA report on US commercial crude inventories will be an additional factor driving volatility in the second half of the day.
• Stock Market (Wall Street / Asian Markets): Geopolitical escalation triggered a clear pullback in Asian indices. Wall Street investors will have to weigh these developments against the afternoon GDP data revision and corporate reports from retail giants like Costco and Dollar Tree.
• US Dollar (USD): The hawkish stance of Fed officials clashing with a comprehensive afternoon package of US macroeconomic data (revised GDP, jobless claims) creates ideal trading conditions for elevated volatility across major USD-related currency pairs.

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