Today’s session will be characterized by limited liquidity due to the closure of US trading floors for the Juneteenth national holiday. Other markets are trading with a heavy dose of pessimism as investors digest recent diplomatic tensions between Iran and the US, alongside continued Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Volatility should therefore remain contained as the session progresses, though the thin liquidity could trigger sharper price swings on low trading volumes. Instead, forex is expected to stay in the spotlight, where a surging dollar exerts additional pressure on precious metals, and the yen remains in the shadow of a potential intervention.

Key Releases from the Asian Session

• Japan: May CPI inflation came in at 1.5% y/y, slightly beating the previous reading (1.4% y/y). Meanwhile, core CPI held at 1.4% y/y for the second consecutive month, perfectly matching expectations. The minutes from the Bank of Japan’s April meeting brought no breakthrough announcements.
• New Zealand: The trade balance for May missed analysts’ expectations. The surplus stood at NZD 800 million against a consensus of NZD 875 million and a previous reading of NZD 1,598 million.
• China, USA, and Sweden: The Asian session and morning European trading are taking place under thin liquidity conditions—China is celebrating the Dragon Boat Festival, Sweden is observing Midsummer’s Eve, and Wall Street is closed for the Juneteenth holiday.

Macroeconomic Calendar (all times CET)

• 08:00 United Kingdom – Retail Sales (y/y). Actual: 3.2%. Consensus: 1.9%. Previous: 0.1%.
• 08:00 United Kingdom – Retail Sales (m/m). Actual: 1.2%. Consensus: 0.5%. Previous: -1.0%.
• 08:00 Germany – PPI (y/y). Actual: 2.2%. Consensus: 2.5%. Previous: 1.7%.
• 08:00 Germany – PPI (m/m). Actual: 0.3%. Consensus: 0.7%. Previous: 1.2%.
• 09:10 Eurozone – Speech by ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane.
• 09:30 Poland – Industrial Production (y/y). Consensus: 2.5%. Previous: 3.1%.
• 12:30 Eurozone – Speech by ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson.
• 14:30 Canada – Retail Sales (m/m). Consensus: 0.6%. Previous: 0.9%.
• 14:30 Canada – Retail Sales ex-Autos (m/m). Consensus: 0.7%. Previous: 1.4%.

3 Markets to Watch Today

• GBP/CHF – The British pound will be in the spotlight following the morning release of May retail sales data from the UK. A reading well above consensus, combined with a drop in domestic political pressure after the by-elections, makes sterling the strongest currency in Europe today.
• USD/CAD – Retail sales data for April from Canada will be published at 14:30. With the US macroeconomic calendar completely empty today, commodity and currency traders will shift their full attention to the health of the Canadian consumer.
• Brent Crude (OIL) – Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the postponement of the US Vice President’s visit to Switzerland—where a Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US was set to be signed—are fueling skepticism over peace, pushing Brent crude prices back above 80 USD per barrel (+1.3%).

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