Morning releases showed stronger activity in China and a mixed data picture from Europe. The focus was mainly on UK GDP, which came in slightly below expectations, German retail sales, which surprised to the upside, and preliminary French inflation, which was weaker than forecast. Markets are also waiting for Germany’s inflation data. For FX markets, speeches from ECB officials may also be important, as they could affect expectations for the rate path. The key releases of the day will come from the U.S. in the afternoon. Investors will watch the JOLTS report and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which may influence the U.S. dollar, bond yields and Wall Street sentiment.

Macro calendar

• 2:30 AM GMT – Australia: Private Sector Credit MoM – actual: 0.7%, forecast: 0.6%, previous: 0.7%
• 2:30 AM GMT – Australia: Housing Credit MoM – actual: 0.5%, forecast: 0.6%, previous: 0.6%
• 2:30 AM GMT – China: NBS Manufacturing PMI – actual: 50.3, forecast: 50.0, previous: 50.1
• 2:30 AM GMT – China: NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI – actual: 50.2, forecast: 50.1, previous: 49.9
• 2:30 AM GMT – China: Composite PMI – actual: 50.6, forecast: none, previous: 50.5
• 6:00 AM GMT – Japan: Housing Starts YoY – actual: 3.8%, forecast: 3.1%, previous: 11.4%
• 7:00 AM GMT – UK: GDP YoY – actual: 0.9%, forecast: 1.1%, previous: 1.1%
• 7:00 AM GMT – UK: GDP QoQ – actual: 0.6%, forecast: 0.6%, previous: 0.6%
• 7:00 AM GMT – Germany: Retail Sales YoY – actual: 1.8%, forecast: 0.0%, previous: -0.3%
• 7:00 AM GMT – Germany: Retail Sales MoM – actual: 1.1%, forecast: 0.0%, previous: -0.3%
• 7:00 AM GMT – Germany: Import Prices MoM – actual: 0.7%, forecast: 0.4%, previous: 1.2%
• 7:00 AM GMT – UK: Current Account – actual: -22.13bn GBP, forecast: -21.3bn GBP, previous: -18.39bn GBP
• 7:00 AM GMT – UK: Business Investment QoQ – actual: 0.9%, forecast: 0.7%, previous: 0.7%
• 7:45 AM GMT – France: Preliminary CPI YoY – actual: 1.8%, forecast: 2.0%, previous: 2.4%
• 7:45 AM GMT – France: Preliminary CPI MoM – actual: -0.2%, forecast: 0.0%, previous: 0.1%
• 7:45 AM GMT – France: Preliminary HICP YoY – actual: 0.0%, forecast: 0.1%, previous: 0.1%
• 8:00 AM GMT – Switzerland: KOF Indicator – forecast: 99.0, previous: 98.0
• 8:40 AM GMT – ECB: Luis de Guindos speaks
• 8:55 AM GMT – Germany: Unemployment Change – actual: 6.3k, forecast: 6.3k, previous: 6.5k
• 8:55 AM GMT – Germany: Unemployment Rate – actual: 6.5%, forecast: 6.3%, previous: 6.3%
• 10:00 AM GMT – Italy: Preliminary CPI YoY – forecast: 3.2%, previous: 3.2%
• 10:00 AM GMT – Italy: Preliminary HICP YoY – forecast: 3.2%, previous: 3.2%
• 10:40 AM GMT – ECB: Isabel Schnabel speaks
• 11:15 AM GMT – ECB: Philip Lane speaks
• 12:30 PM GMT – ECB: Philip Lane speaks
• 1:00 PM GMT – Germany: Preliminary HICP YoY – forecast: 2.5%, previous: 2.7%
• 1:00 PM GMT – Germany: CPI YoY – forecast: 2.6%, previous: 2.6%
• 1:00 PM GMT – Germany: HICP MoM – forecast: 0.1%, previous: -0.1%
• 1:00 PM GMT – Germany: CPI MoM – forecast: 0.0%, previous: -0.2%
• 1:30 PM GMT – Canada: GDP MoM – forecast: -0.1%, previous: 0.4%
• 2:00 PM GMT – USA: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index YoY – forecast: 0.9%, previous: 0.8%
• 2:00 PM GMT – USA: FHFA House Price Index MoM – forecast: 1.7%, previous: 1.7%
• 2:30 PM GMT – USA: Fed’s Christopher Waller speaks
• 2:45 PM GMT – USA: Chicago PMI – forecast: 55.1, previous: 62.7
• 3:00 PM GMT – USA: JOLTS Job Openings – forecast: 7.29mn, previous: 7.61mn
• 6:00 PM GMT – USA: Conference Board Consumer Confidence – forecast: 94.4, previous: 93.1
• After the U.S. session – Nike quarterly earnings (NKE.US)

EURUSD (D1 interval)

Source: xStation5

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