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- EUR/JPY may find immediate support at the lower boundary of the descending channel around 176.00.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 32.75, signaling persistent downside pressure despite a stretched sell-off.
- The initial barrier lies at the nine-day EMA at 177.44.
EUR/JPY loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 176.90 during Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross remains within a descending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross retains a bearish near-term bias as it holds below both the 9- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair is retreating after failing to sustain gains earlier in the month, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 32.75 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside pressure remains in place even if the sell-off is becoming stretched.
The EUR/JPY cross faces key technical levels to the downside, with initial support located at the lower boundary of its descending channel around 176.00. A break below this level brings into focus the 11-month low of 175.70, which was recorded in November 2025. If selling pressure intensifies and pushes the pair below this confluence support zone, further declines could expose the 14-month low at 169.72.
On the upside, the immediate primary resistance is expected at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 177.44, followed by the 50-day EMA at 180.47. A decisive move above these key moving averages would cause a bullish reversal, opening the doors for the EUR/JPY cross to approach the upper boundary of the descending channel near 183.90, with the all-time high of 187.95, reached on April 17, serving as the ultimate target.
Japanese investors seen unlikely to be driving French bond volatility
Analysts at Commerzbank highlight that Japanese investors have been “net sellers of long-term French bonds over the past twelve months,” with “cumulative net purchases since early 2014” having “declined noticeably since the pandemic.” However, they stress that these investors “have already returned as buyers over the past three months,” leading Commerzbank to conclude that “it therefore appears unlikely that Japanese investors were responsible for, or even materially contributed to, the recent dislocations in the French bond market.”
