EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains ground to near 1.1600, bullish vibe prevails above 100-day SMA

• EUR/USD gathers strength to near 1.1590 in Monday’s early European session. 
• Fed’s Warsh signalled that further tightening may be needed to curb price pressure.
• The first upside barrier emerges at 1.1677; the initial support level is seen at 1.1570.  

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.1590 during the early European trading hours on Monday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited as traders ramped up bets on a rate hike after hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh. 

Fed Chairman said on Friday at the Jackson Hole economic symposium that the US central bank will “have work to do” if policymakers don’t get the confidence they need that inflation is heading down to 2%.  His hawkish comments have fuelled expectations of a September rate hike, supporting the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). 

Traders brace for the preliminary reading of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from Germany, which will be published later on Monday. Any signs of hotter inflation in Germany could lift the shared currency in the near term. 

Dollar sentiment firms as Fed repricing follows Warsh’s hawkish tone

Strategists at Commerzbank highlight that “the main theme on Friday was the hawkish repricing of Fed expectations” in the wake of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. They note that Warsh warned inflation is “not meaningfully slowing” and reaffirmed that the Fed’s 2% inflation target is “firm and fixed,” while stressing that policymakers have “work to do” if they cannot be confident that underlying inflation is returning toward the target.

Warsh flags unfinished inflation fight, keeps Dollar bulls alert

Fed Chair Warsh delivered a notably more hawkish-leaning tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7.4 versus a 6.5 historical average, underscoring heightened concern about price stability despite solid growth and stable labor markets. The insistence that the Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to objective or “we have work to do,” combined with comments that financial conditions are not restrictive and credit markets show few signs of policy restraint, points to a bias toward further tightening or a prolonged restrictive stance even as headline inflation data have improved but underlying trends are judged largely unchanged. Warsh’s emphasis that the Fed’s 2% PCE target is “firm and fixed” and that the predominant focus should be on prices reinforces a message that the inflation battle is not yet convincingly won, a backdrop that tends to support the Dollar on dips.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated 129.70, signaling that the aggregate policy tone remains firmly in hawkish territory despite the July decision to wait. The combination of a high index level and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score suggests that markets will continue to price a vigilant Fed stance, with the Dollar likely to stay underpinned as long as inflation progress is viewed as incomplete.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD is well-supported above the key 100-day SMA

In the daily chart, EUR/USD holds a mildly bullish near-term tone as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), while pressing just under the 20-day Bollinger SMA, which acts as an immediate pivot. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.8 sits slightly above its neutral line, hinting that buyers retain a modest advantage without reaching overbought conditions.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the August 26 high of 1.1677. A stronger barrier emerges at the upper Bollinger band around 1.1710, en route to the May 8 high of 1.1788. 

On the downside, the 100-day SMA at 1.1570 offers first support, followed by the August 13 low of 1.1511. A more distant Bollinger lower band level is located near 1.1480, where a deeper pullback would likely encounter firmer buying interest.

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