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UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that EUR/USD plunged to a three‑month low around 1.1520 after breaking several key supports. In the near term, they see scope for a further drop toward 1.1490, while over the next 1–3 weeks, the pair is expected to continue weakening toward 1.1445, with resistance now capped around 1.1575/1.1600.
Momentum points to further Euro losses
“24-HOUR VIEW: Our view of range-trading last Friday was incorrect, as EUR nose-dived during the early NY session, breaking a couple of firm support levels on the way. EUR closed at 1.1519, down sharply by 0.78%. While the sharp and rapid decline appears excessive, there are no signs of stabilisation yet. Today, as long as 1.1575 (minor resistance is at 1.1535), EUR could drop toward 1.1490. That said, any further decline is unlikely to reach 1.1445 for now. “
“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After holding the view that “EUR is neutral, and it is likely to trade between 1.1590 and 1.1685” for more than a week, we indicated last Thursday (04 Jun, spot at 1.1605) that “downward momentum is increasing, and if EUR breaks and holds below 1.1590, it would increase the risk of a decline toward the significant support at 1.1555.” We added, “the likelihood of EUR breaking clearly below 1.1590 will remain intact as long as 1.1655 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.” Last Friday, EUR not only broke below 1.1590, but also breached 1.1555, plunging to a low of 1.1516. Given the sharp boost in downward momentum, EUR is likely to continue to weaken toward 1.1445. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level is now at 1.1600 instead of 1.1655. In the near-term, 1.1575 is already a firm resistance level.”
