- GBP/USD trades flat around 1.3245 in Monday’s Asian session.
- UK budget relief could support the Pound Sterling.
- Fed cut odds rise to 87% on dovish Fed remarks and uncertainty.
The GBP/USD pair holds steady near 1.3245 during the Asian session on Monday as traders continue to digest the UK’s Autumn Budget. The potential downside for the major pair might be limited due to the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in the December meeting. The US November ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report is due later on Monday.
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves revealed the UK’s Autumn Budget last week, which includes tax hikes and changes to business rates, benefits, and pensions.The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) revised its 2025 growth forecast for the UK upward, from 1.0% to 1.5% following the budget announcement. Nonetheless, OBR lowered its growth estimates to 1.4% in 2026 and 1.5% in all of the following four years. The 2025 UK Autumn Budget could lead to a modest relief rally for the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) in the near term.
Traders increase their bets of a Fed rate reduction amid the uncertainty and dovish comments from Fed officials, which drag the Greenback lower and act as a headwind for the pair. US Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 87% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) December policy meeting, compared to a 71% odds a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that available data indicate that the labor market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point cut at the December meeting. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that she supports lowering the interest rate next month because she saw a sudden deterioration in the job market, as both are more likely and harder to manage than an inflation flare-up.
