GBP/USD Price Forecast: Sterling Falls Below 1.3400 as Fed Strength and Bearish Technicals Weigh

GBP/USD is trading below 1.3400 at the start of the week, with the pair around 1.3375 during early European trading. Sterling remains under pressure after the US Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish rate increase last week, while the technical structure continues to point to downside pressure as long as the pair remains below its 100-day moving average.

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at its September meeting, marking the first increase in more than three years. Policymakers also left the door open to another increase before the end of 2026, reinforcing the recent support for the US Dollar.

The Pound has its own monetary-policy support. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on September 17, but the decision was split 6-3, with three policymakers voting for an increase to 4%. The BoE also warned that UK inflation could rise to slightly above 4% in early 2027 if elevated energy prices persist.

This leaves GBP/USD facing a relatively balanced fundamental battle, but the immediate technical structure remains weaker. The pair is below the 100-day SMA around 1.3435, while the RSI near 35 points to weak momentum without yet indicating deeply oversold conditions.

The first major downside level is 1.3355, followed by the September 18 low around 1.3335 and then the 1.3273 July 28 low. On the upside, a sustained move above 1.3435 would be required to begin easing the current bearish technical structure.

GBP/USD Market Snapshot

GBP/USD Price Today: Sterling Holds Below 1.3400

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3375, extending the recent decline after the Pound experienced its largest weekly fall since June. Sterling declined approximately 1.2% last week, with the Fed’s rate increase and hawkish policy outlook strengthening the US Dollar.

The pair’s inability to reclaim 1.3400 leaves the short-term structure vulnerable to further selling.

The immediate question is whether buyers can defend 1.3355.

A successful defence could allow GBP/USD to stabilise and retest 1.3435, while a clear break below 1.3355 would expose the September low near 1.3335 and potentially the 1.3273 July low.

Federal Reserve Tightening Supports the US Dollar

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last week to 3.75%-4.00%, responding to persistent inflationary pressure. The decision was accompanied by projections that left room for another increase in 2026.

The latest commentary from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reinforced this stance.

Kashkari said inflation remains too high across the US economy and is not confined to energy or food prices. He also pointed to resilient economic growth as an additional source of price pressure.

For GBP/USD, the implication is important: higher US rates and expectations for further tightening increase the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets.

That creates a fundamental headwind for Sterling.

US Rate Expectations Keep Dollar Strength in Focus

Markets continue to assess how far the Fed may need to tighten.

The latest Reuters market coverage put the probability of another October increase at around 55%, while the source article cited a CME FedWatch probability of 56.5%. These market-implied probabilities can change rapidly as economic data and Fed communications develop.

US Treasury yields have also risen sharply, with the two-year yield up roughly 36 basis points over the past two weeks as expectations for further Fed tightening increased.

That yield movement is particularly relevant to GBP/USD because short-term interest-rate expectations are a major driver of major-currency valuation.

Unless US inflation and labour-market data begin to reduce expectations for additional Fed tightening, the dollar can retain an important fundamental advantage.

Bank of England Holds Rates but Keeps Tightening Risk Alive

The BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75% at its September meeting, but the vote was notably divided.

Six policymakers voted to maintain rates, while three preferred a 25-basis-point increase to 4%.

The decision therefore does not represent a unanimous commitment to keeping rates unchanged.

The BoE also stated that UK CPI inflation had risen to 3.1% in August and is likely to increase further over coming quarters because of higher energy prices. Its mechanical projection showed inflation reaching slightly above 4% in early 2027.

This creates an important support mechanism for Sterling.

If energy prices remain elevated and inflation expectations become more persistent, markets could increase expectations for additional BoE tightening.

That could limit the downside in GBP/USD even while the Fed remains hawkish.

UK Inflation Remains a Major Sterling Driver

UK inflation is currently well above the BoE’s 2% target.

The central bank has stressed that higher energy prices are the main reason inflation is expected to rise again. At the same time, the BoE noted that there has so far been limited evidence of significant second-round effects through wages and broader price-setting.

This distinction is important.

If inflation rises primarily because of energy prices and then falls as the energy shock fades, the BoE may not need to maintain a prolonged tightening cycle.

If higher energy costs become embedded into wages, services and broader price expectations, however, monetary policy may need to remain restrictive for longer.

That uncertainty leaves the Pound sensitive to both inflation data and energy-market developments.

UK Retail Sales Provide Some Economic Support

The latest UK retail-sales figures provided a more positive economic signal.

August retail sales increased 0.5% month-on-month, compared with expectations for a 0.2% decline, while annual sales growth reached 2.4%.

The stronger-than-expected result suggests that domestic demand has not weakened uniformly despite high interest rates and elevated living costs.

For GBP/USD, stronger UK activity can provide some support by reducing expectations of an immediate deterioration in the UK economy.

However, one monthly retail-sales report does not determine the BoE’s policy trajectory, particularly when the central bank is also dealing with an energy-driven inflation shock.

UK Fiscal Expectations and Sterling

The UK’s fiscal position remains another factor monitored by currency markets.

Recent market commentary has pointed to continued attention on fiscal discipline and the government’s approach to public finances as an influence on UK asset sentiment.

A credible fiscal framework can support demand for UK assets by reducing concerns around government borrowing and gilt-market volatility.

However, fiscal expectations can shift quickly around government announcements and the UK Budget, meaning this remains a secondary rather than standalone driver for GBP/USD.

Energy Prices Create a Two-Sided GBP/USD Risk

The Middle East conflict has created a complicated environment for Sterling.

Higher oil and gas prices are negative for the UK economy because Britain is exposed to higher imported energy costs. They also increase headline inflation and could force the BoE to maintain restrictive monetary policy.

The BoE specifically warned that prolonged energy-price increases could create more persistent inflationary pressure.

At the same time, a de-escalation that causes oil prices to fall could reduce the UK’s inflation pressure.

That would be positive for household purchasing power but could also reduce the need for additional BoE tightening.

The effect on GBP/USD is therefore not straightforward.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The technical structure remains bearish while GBP/USD trades below the 100-day SMA at approximately 1.3435.

The pair is also below the Bollinger midline near 1.3505, while price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band.

The RSI around 35 shows weak momentum but is not yet deeply oversold. This means sellers retain control of the short-term structure, but the market is approaching an area where a technical rebound could develop if buyers step in.

The first upside barrier is 1.3435.

Above that, the next major level is the 1.3505 Bollinger midline, followed by the upper band near 1.3655.

On the downside, 1.3355 is the first important support, followed by the 1.3335 September 18 low.

A sustained break below 1.3335 would put the 1.3273 July 28 low into focus.

Bullish Sentiment

1. BoE Tightening Expectations

Although the BoE held rates at 3.75%, three policymakers voted for an immediate increase to 4%.

Persistent UK inflation could increase the probability of further tightening, providing a potential fundamental floor beneath Sterling.

2. UK Inflation Remains Elevated

UK CPI reached 3.1% in August, well above the BoE’s 2% target. The central bank expects inflation to rise further as higher energy prices pass through the economy.

If inflation remains persistent, markets may maintain expectations for higher UK rates.

3. Stronger UK Retail Sales

August retail sales beat expectations, rising 0.5% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year.

Continued resilience in consumer activity could provide support for the Pound by reducing expectations of a sharp UK slowdown.

4. Technical Rebound Risk

With RSI near 35 and price approaching the lower Bollinger Band, GBP/USD is increasingly entering an area where short-covering or dip-buying could occur.

A recovery through 1.3435 would be the first technical indication that selling pressure is easing.

Bearish Sentiment

1. GBP/USD Remains Below the 100-Day SMA

The pair is trading below 1.3435, keeping the primary short-term technical structure under pressure.

As long as the 100-day SMA acts as resistance, rallies can remain vulnerable to renewed selling.

2. Hawkish Fed

The Federal Reserve has raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% and left the door open to another increase in 2026.

A widening or persistent US yield advantage can continue to support the Dollar against Sterling.

3. Bearish Momentum

The RSI near 35 indicates that downside momentum remains significant.

A daily close below 1.3355 would strengthen the bearish technical structure.

4. Dollar Strength and Higher Treasury Yields

US two-year Treasury yields have risen sharply as markets price further Fed tightening.

Continued increases in short-term US yields could place additional pressure on GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

The technical map for the coming sessions is relatively clear.

Bullish scenario:

• 1.3400 — first psychological recovery level
• 1.3435 — 100-day SMA and initial major resistance
• 1.3505 — Bollinger midline
• 1.3655 — upper Bollinger Band
• A sustained move above 1.3435 would begin weakening the current bearish structure

Bearish scenario:

• 1.3375 — current trading area
• 1.3355 — immediate support
• 1.3335 — September 18 low
• 1.3273 — July 28 low
• A sustained break below 1.3335 would expose the July low

The 1.3335-1.3435 region is therefore the key short-term range.

A break above 1.3435 would provide evidence that sellers are losing control, while a clear break below 1.3335 would extend the downside structure.

GBP/USD Fundamental Outlook: Fed Versus BoE

The GBP/USD fundamental outlook is being shaped by two central banks that are both dealing with inflation pressure but from different starting points.

The Fed has already resumed rate increases and is signalling that another move may be required.

The BoE has paused at 3.75%, but the three dissenting votes for a hike demonstrate that additional tightening remains under consideration.

The key difference is therefore not simply the level of interest rates.

Markets are assessing which central bank will need to remain restrictive for longer.

If US inflation remains broad-based and the Fed continues tightening, the Dollar could retain its current advantage.

If UK inflation proves persistent enough to force the BoE into further hikes, the Pound could regain some of the ground lost following the Fed decision.

UK Economy Versus US Economy

The relative economic performance of Britain and the United States will become increasingly important.

US economic growth remains resilient, while inflation remains elevated. The Fed has therefore been able to justify additional tightening.

The UK economy has shown some resilience through stronger retail sales, but the BoE continues to identify softer labour-market conditions and restrictive financial conditions as factors that should eventually reduce inflation.

GBP/USD could therefore remain sensitive to incoming data on both sides of the Atlantic.

Stronger-than-expected US data combined with weaker UK figures would reinforce the existing dollar advantage.

Conversely, stronger UK activity and inflation alongside softer US data could reduce the policy gap.

Currency Hedger View

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Businesses receiving GBP revenues while paying US Dollar suppliers, or companies with future USD obligations, may face meaningful changes in the cost of their currency exposure if GBP/USD moves through the 1.3335-1.3435 range.

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Today Markets View

GBP/USD begins the week below 1.3400, with the pair trading around 1.3375 and remaining below its 100-day SMA at 1.3435.

The immediate technical picture continues to favour caution on the upside. The 1.3355 support level is now important, followed by the 1.3335 September low and 1.3273 July low. A sustained break below 1.3335 would expose the lower part of the recent trading range.

However, the fundamental picture is not one-sided.

The Federal Reserve has adopted a more restrictive stance, raising rates to 3.75%-4.00% and keeping the possibility of another 2026 increase open. This has strengthened the Dollar and remains the principal near-term headwind for GBP/USD.

The Bank of England, meanwhile, held Bank Rate at 3.75%, but the 6-3 vote showed that a significant minority of policymakers preferred an immediate hike to 4%. UK inflation has also risen to 3.1%, with the BoE warning that it could move above 4% in early 2027 if the energy shock persists.

Technically, 1.3435 is the key upside level to reclaim, while 1.3355 and 1.3335 define the immediate downside structure.

The coming direction for GBP/USD will therefore depend on whether US monetary tightening, higher Treasury yields and Dollar strength continue to dominate, or whether persistent UK inflation and expectations for further BoE tightening begin to provide greater support for Sterling.

For now, the pair remains below its principal trend reference, leaving 1.3435 on the upside and 1.3335 on the downside as the levels most likely to define the next significant technical move.

Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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