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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Traders seem hesitant below 1.3300s; 200-SMA on H4 holds the key
- GBP/USD attracts some dip-buyers, though the upside remains capped amid a bullish USD.
- The hot US CPI and odds for a jumbo Fed rate hike in December lend support to the buck.
- The BoE’s hawkish tilt acts as a tailwind for the GBP, warranting caution for bearish traders.
The GBP/USD pair struggles to build on modest Asian session uptick beyond mid-1.3300s, though it holds above a one-and-a-half-week trough, touched the previous day.
The US Dollar (USD) preserves the previous day’s hot US consumer inflation figures-inspired gains amid odds for a jumbo 50-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. That said, hopes for US-Iran diplomacy cap the upside for the safe-haven Greenback. Furthermore, the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish outlook acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices defended the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and hold a mildly positive near-term tone above several Fibonacci retracement levels. The setup suggests underlying demand after the recent pullback from the 1.3506 swing high. Momentum indicators, however, remain subdued and warrant caution for GBP/USD bulls.
In fact, the Relative Strength Index is near 38, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is fractionally negative and flattening, hinting that buyers lack strong conviction and that upside progress could be gradual. Meanwhile, initial resistance is aligned at the 38.2% Fibo. at 1.3365, ahead of the 23.6% retracement at 1.3419, while the 1.3506 swing high remains the key bullish target.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 50.0% retracement at 1.3322, followed by the 200-period SMA at 1.3314. A convincing break below these would expose deeper Fibonacci supports at 1.3279 and 1.3217, with 1.3138 acting as a more distant structural floor.
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
