Global Markets Rebound as Asia Leads Recovery, Oil Falls and Nvidia Scandal Raises AI Investment Concerns – Monday Market Outlook

Global financial markets begin the week with a tentative recovery in risk appetite as Asian equities rebound, US futures recover their overnight losses and the dollar weakens. However, investors face a crowded calendar of economic releases, central bank commentary and corporate earnings, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a developing controversy surrounding Nvidia continue to influence sentiment.

The immediate market focus is shifting between two competing forces: expectations that diplomatic efforts could prevent a renewed escalation between the United States and Iran, and concerns that political, regulatory and corporate developments could undermine confidence in the technology sector.

Wall Street endured its worst weekly performance since April 2025, with the Nasdaq 100 losing approximately $2.3 trillion in market value amid concerns about AI infrastructure investment, data centre regulation and rising capital expenditure. Friday’s partial recovery has extended into Monday’s futures session, but investors remain cautious ahead of Tuesday’s US inflation report.

Meanwhile, Asia has delivered a stronger start to the week. Taiwan’s Taiex surged after authorities introduced measures to stabilise the equity market, while Japanese and South Korean technology shares also recovered. The rebound provides some relief after last week’s sharp selling, although it remains uncertain whether buyers are returning with conviction or simply responding to oversold conditions.

Global Market Snapshot

Figures reflect the supplied market update and may change as trading progresses.

Nvidia Controversy Adds a New Risk to the AI Sector

The controversy surrounding Nvidia is emerging as a significant source of uncertainty for technology investors. Reports concerning CEO Jensen Huang and an individual affiliated with a Nvidia client accused of helping sanctioned Chinese companies obtain AI chips have raised questions about corporate governance and potential national security implications.

According to the reports cited in the supplied briefing, US intelligence agencies suspect that information may have been passed to Beijing. Nvidia’s board has launched an independent investigation and has stated that there is currently no reason to believe confidential information was disclosed.

The issue has also attracted congressional attention, with three Republican committee chairmen seeking a closed-door hearing with Huang as early as November 18.

For investors, the immediate concern is not simply the allegations themselves but the potential implications for Nvidia’s regulatory environment, commercial relationships and access to international markets.

Nvidia shares were indicated around $180.30 in after-hours trading, approximately 3.4% below Friday’s closing price of $186.64. The company’s upcoming quarterly earnings on November 17 will therefore carry additional significance, particularly as investors assess whether demand for AI infrastructure remains strong enough to support current valuations.

AI Investment and Technology Stocks Under Pressure

The wider technology sector remains vulnerable following last week’s sharp correction. Concerns about the cost of data centre construction, energy consumption, capital expenditure and possible regulatory restrictions have contributed to the decline in technology valuations.

Friday’s trading session demonstrated the extent of the volatility. Reddit fell 29.6%, Intel declined 28.8%, Illumina lost 18.6%, Twilio dropped 14.9%, SanDisk fell 13.5% and Coherent declined 11.9%.

On the positive side, FedEx Freight gained 14.8%, Regeneron advanced 14%, Global Payments rose 12.9% and GoDaddy added 10.7%.

Market commentary from Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab suggests that the Nasdaq is technically oversold, but the absence of a strong retail investor response to the decline raises questions about whether selling pressure has fully run its course.

The focus is increasingly moving towards corporate capital expenditure plans and margin expectations. Earnings from CoreWeave, Cisco and Applied Materials this week should provide further insight into whether concerns about slowing AI infrastructure investment are reflected in actual business performance.

US Markets Attempt to Stabilise Ahead of Inflation Data

US equity futures have recovered their overnight losses, suggesting that investors are attempting to establish a floor following the previous week’s sell-off.

The US100 is trading around 27,116, up 0.05%, while US500 futures have gained 0.41% to 7,433.5 points. Dow Jones and Russell 2000 futures are also indicating gains of approximately 0.6–0.7%.

The relative strength in traditional economy-linked indices suggests that capital may be rotating away from some of the more heavily valued technology stocks.

However, the recovery faces an important test this week. The market continues to price in approximately an 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, with Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment report reinforcing expectations that monetary policy could remain restrictive.

The US 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.87%, keeping borrowing costs elevated and creating an additional challenge for high-growth technology companies.

Tuesday’s consumer price inflation report and Friday’s producer price inflation figures will be central to the market’s assessment of the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Asia Leads the Global Equity Recovery

Asian equities have provided the strongest evidence of improving sentiment at the beginning of the week, with semiconductor shares recovering after last week’s heavy losses.

Taiwan Shares Surge Following Stabilisation Measures

Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 4.9%, having risen as much as 6.7% during the session. The recovery followed restrictions on short selling and the announcement that a TWD 500 billion stabilisation fund, equivalent to approximately $15.2 billion, was being placed on standby.

Major semiconductor companies led the advance. TSMC gained approximately 4.7%, MediaTek rose more than 4% and Foxconn advanced around 6.5%.

The rebound represents a significant reversal after seven consecutive sessions of losses, although the extent to which the recovery can be sustained will depend on international technology sentiment and investor confidence.

South Korean Chipmakers Recover

South Korean semiconductor shares also attracted buyers as investors reassessed last week’s decline.

SK Hynix gained approximately 4.6%, while Samsung advanced around 2.4%. The broader KOSPI, however, finished close to unchanged.

The recovery follows a substantial correction in AI-related memory shares, with Goldman Sachs’ AI memory stock index previously falling 51% from its June peak.

Seoul has also sought to reassure investors that contracted shipments of Nvidia GPUs are not at risk. Separately, Nvidia, SK Telecom and Rebellions have announced a partnership to develop sovereign AI infrastructure.

Japan Leads Regional Gains

Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced approximately 2.5%, while the Topix gained around 3%, supported by financial and cyclical stocks alongside a recovery in semiconductor shares.

The JP225 futures contract is trading at 58,797 points, up 1.01%.

China’s equity markets were more subdued. The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite gained approximately 0.4%, while the Hang Seng ended unchanged. Australia’s ASX 200 also traded close to flat.

The divergence across Asian markets suggests that investors are selectively returning to equities rather than embracing a broad-based recovery.

China Inflation Highlights the Pressure on Corporate Margins

China’s latest inflation figures present a mixed picture for the world’s second-largest economy.

Producer Price Index inflation accelerated to 5.7% year-on-year in October, above the 5.3% consensus expectation and marking its highest level since June 2022. The increase was driven by rising prices for raw materials and mining.

Consumer inflation moved in the opposite direction. CPI inflation slowed to 0.7% year-on-year, below the expected 0.8%, while core CPI declined to 0.8%. Food prices fell by 2.9%.

The combination of higher production costs and weak domestic demand presents a difficult environment for Chinese manufacturers. Businesses face increasing input expenses while consumer demand remains insufficient to provide a corresponding improvement in pricing power.

The continuing weakness in the property market adds another challenge, with no clear evidence of stabilisation.

For global markets, the figures highlight the possibility of continued pressure on Chinese corporate profitability, even as industrial input prices increase.

Dollar Weakens as Yen Intervention Keeps Currency Markets Alert

The US dollar is trading slightly lower, with the Dollar Index down 0.18% at 101.97.

EUR/USD has advanced 0.15% to 1.1162, while GBP/USD has gained 0.26% to 1.3384 ahead of comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

USD/JPY is trading at 158.22, down 0.09%, following confirmation of a record one-day Japanese currency intervention estimated at approximately $50 billion.

The scale of the intervention reinforces the possibility of further action from Tokyo if yen weakness resumes. Japan’s leading indicators index also declined to 116.4, below the expected 116.7, suggesting a modest slowdown in economic momentum.

The New Zealand dollar gained approximately 1% following the weekend’s parliamentary elections, while the Polish zloty remained relatively stable, with USD/PLN at 3.9321 and EUR/PLN at 4.3889.

Currency markets will remain sensitive to central bank commentary, US inflation data and any further developments involving Japanese intervention.

Oil Falls Despite Fresh Attacks on Middle Eastern Energy Infrastructure

Oil prices are moving lower despite renewed attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, suggesting that investors are currently assigning greater weight to diplomatic developments than to the immediate escalation in regional security risks.

Brent crude has fallen 1.08% to $96.68 per barrel, while WTI is down 0.62% at $89.76.

The latest developments include reported Houthi drone strikes against the Aramco skyscraper in Riyadh and a suspected Iranian drone attack that halted operations at Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field.

Despite these incidents, comments from Donald Trump that a return to open conflict with Iran is highly unlikely, provided a sufficiently strong agreement is reached, have helped reduce immediate concerns about further escalation.

However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed according to the supplied briefing, leaving a significant source of uncertainty for global energy markets.

The diplomatic situation remains fragile. The United States continues to maintain a military presence in the region, while CENTCOM has launched Task Force Iron Gate, intended to restrict Iran’s land routes and access to the Caspian Sea.

The combination of military pressure, energy infrastructure attacks and diplomatic negotiations means oil prices remain particularly sensitive to new developments.

Natural Gas Markets

US natural gas prices have gained approximately 1% to $3.03, while European natural gas prices remain broadly stable at 86.72.

The contrasting movements in oil and natural gas highlight the different supply and demand dynamics affecting energy markets. Investors will continue to monitor infrastructure security, regional supply routes and the potential impact of geopolitical developments on energy availability.

Gold and Silver Advance Despite Elevated Bond Yields

Precious metals are attracting strong buying interest, with gold gaining 1.22% to approximately $4,119 per ounce and silver rising 1.62% to around $52.71.

The advance is notable given the elevated US 10-year Treasury yield of approximately 4.87% and the market’s expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

A weaker dollar and renewed concerns about attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf appear to be supporting demand for precious metals.

Gold’s ability to advance despite higher yields suggests that geopolitical uncertainty is currently providing an important source of support.

For traders, the next test will be whether safe-haven demand remains strong enough to offset the pressure that elevated interest rates can place on non-yielding assets.

Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure Below $75,000

Bitcoin continues to struggle alongside technology and other risk-sensitive assets.

The cryptocurrency fell below $74,000 over the weekend, reaching its lowest level since August, before recovering to approximately $74,180, down 0.14%.

Market attention is focused on the $75,000 level and the 200-session moving average near $73,000.

A sustained break below the longer-term average would represent a more significant technical warning for investors, particularly if selling pressure across technology stocks continues to weigh on broader risk appetite.

The latest recovery in Asian equities has not yet translated into a meaningful improvement in cryptocurrency sentiment.

Geopolitical and Political Developments Add to Market Uncertainty

Beyond the immediate market movements, several political and security developments are shaping the broader investment environment.

US-China trade tensions have eased temporarily, with Beijing extending the suspension of its 24% retaliatory tariffs on US goods for another two months. The applicable rate remains at 10%, while special port fees have also been suspended ahead of the APEC summit.

In Europe, cybersecurity concerns have intensified following attacks affecting supermarket refrigeration systems in Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden and Luxembourg. False bomb threats have also disrupted flights, while protesters attempted to enter a Microsoft data centre in Amsterdam.

France continues to experience protests over the cost of living, with 146,000 people reportedly taking to the streets during the fourth consecutive weekend of demonstrations. The National Assembly has rejected the revenue section of the 2027 budget, while the Senate is scheduled to begin deliberations on November 20.

Spain is also approaching early elections scheduled for November 29, with the far-right Vox party expected to make gains.

These developments add to an already complicated political and economic environment for European businesses and investors.

Bullish Market Sentiment

1. Asian equity recovery: Strong gains in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea suggest that buyers are returning to semiconductor and cyclical stocks following last week’s correction.
2. US futures stabilisation: The recovery in Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures indicates that immediate selling pressure has eased, at least temporarily.
3. Weaker US dollar: Dollar weakness is supporting major currency pairs and providing a favourable background for dollar-denominated commodities.
4. Precious metals demand: Gold and silver are advancing despite elevated Treasury yields, highlighting continued demand for defensive assets.
5. Reduced immediate Iran escalation concerns: Trump’s comments about the possibility of avoiding renewed open conflict have helped ease immediate fears of a further oil supply shock.
6. Chinese industrial price recovery: Higher producer prices could support selected industrial sectors, although the benefits remain uncertain while domestic demand is weak.

Bearish Market Sentiment

1. Nvidia corporate uncertainty: The developing controversy surrounding Nvidia creates additional governance and regulatory uncertainty ahead of its November 17 earnings report.
2. AI investment concerns: Questions surrounding data centre expenditure, energy consumption and future profit margins continue to weigh on technology valuations.
3. Federal Reserve rate expectations: The market’s approximately 80% probability of a December rate hike and elevated Treasury yields remain potential headwinds for equities.
4. Weak Chinese consumer demand: Falling consumer inflation and continued property market weakness highlight the fragility of domestic demand.
5. Middle Eastern supply risks: Attacks on energy infrastructure and the reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz leave oil and gas markets exposed to sudden disruption.
6. Bitcoin technical weakness: Trading below $75,000 and approaching the 200-session moving average near $73,000 leaves the cryptocurrency vulnerable to further selling.
7. European political and security risks: Protests, budget uncertainty and cyberattacks create additional challenges for businesses and investor confidence.

Price Forecast: What Traders Should Watch

The immediate outlook for global markets is cautiously constructive, but the recovery remains vulnerable to renewed volatility.

For US equities, the key question is whether the Nasdaq can sustain a rebound after moving into technically oversold territory, with its RSI around 31. A recovery in technology shares would help improve broader sentiment, but investors will need reassurance that AI infrastructure spending and corporate margins remain resilient.

Nvidia’s upcoming earnings and the congressional hearing scheduled for November 18 will be important events for the technology sector. Developments surrounding CoreWeave, Cisco and Applied Materials should also provide further evidence of the strength of AI-related investment.

For currencies, Tuesday’s US CPI report is likely to be particularly important. A stronger inflation reading could reinforce expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy and support the dollar, while a softer figure could provide additional room for the euro, pound and other major currencies to advance.

Oil traders will remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the security of regional energy infrastructure and the progress of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Diplomatic progress could maintain downward pressure on prices, but further disruption to supply routes could quickly reverse the current direction.

Gold and silver remain supported by geopolitical uncertainty and dollar weakness, although higher Treasury yields could limit further gains if expectations of a December rate hike strengthen.

Bitcoin faces a separate technical test around $73,000. A sustained break below this level would increase downside concerns, while a recovery above $75,000 would help ease immediate selling pressure.

Economic Calendar: Key Events This Week

Investors should also monitor earnings from Take-Two Interactive, Occidental Petroleum, KKR, Constellation Energy and Skydance, alongside this week’s reports from CoreWeave, Cisco and Applied Materials.

Monday Market Outlook

European markets are expected to open slightly higher, with the DE40 up 0.31% at 25,835 points, the EU50 gaining 0.38% and the UK100 advancing 0.29%.

The initial European session will focus on Germany’s trade balance, the Sentix index and discussions among European finance ministers. French political developments will also remain relevant as protests and the 2027 budget dispute continue to weigh on the domestic outlook.

In the United States, attention will shift towards comments from Federal Reserve officials and the approach to Tuesday’s CPI release. The market will be looking for confirmation that the recent improvement in employment conditions is not accompanied by a renewed acceleration in inflation.

The central question for equity traders is whether the Nasdaq’s oversold condition can support a sustainable recovery, or whether investors will continue reducing exposure ahead of the inflation data and Nvidia’s upcoming earnings.

For commodities, the direction of oil prices will depend heavily on whether diplomatic optimism continues to outweigh the risks surrounding Middle Eastern energy infrastructure. Gold and silver remain supported by a weaker dollar and geopolitical uncertainty.

The broader market picture is therefore one of selective recovery rather than a confirmed return to risk appetite. Asian equities have stabilised, US futures have recovered and the dollar is softer, but technology valuations, interest-rate expectations and geopolitical risks remain unresolved.

Today Markets Analysis

The start of the week offers some relief following one of the most difficult periods for global equities since April 2025. The recovery in Asian technology shares and US futures suggests that investors are willing to reconsider exposure after last week’s sharp correction.

However, the underlying concerns have not disappeared. The Nvidia controversy introduces a new source of uncertainty for an already sensitive AI sector, while the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook continues to challenge equity valuations. China’s inflation figures also highlight the imbalance between industrial costs and consumer demand.

The most important developments to watch are Tuesday’s US CPI report, the direction of Treasury yields, further evidence of AI infrastructure investment and any change in the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets may be attempting to establish a recovery, but confirmation will require stronger participation from investors and evidence that the latest sell-off has addressed the concerns weighing on valuations.

Currency Hedger View

The current market environment reinforces the importance of active currency risk management for international businesses.

A weaker US dollar is influencing the cost of dollar-denominated payments, while movements in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY are creating changing conditions for companies with exposure to European, British, Japanese and US markets. The scale of Japan’s reported intervention also demonstrates how quickly currency markets can respond to official action.

For importers purchasing energy, raw materials or technology components in US dollars, movements in exchange rates can materially affect procurement costs and cash-flow forecasts. Exporters and businesses receiving revenue in multiple currencies face the opposite challenge: favourable exchange-rate movements can improve translated income, but sudden reversals can reduce margins.

With US inflation data, central bank commentary and geopolitical developments all capable of influencing currency direction this week, businesses should avoid relying solely on spot-market conditions when planning international payments.

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Risk Disclaimer

This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading recommendations or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Market prices, economic data and geopolitical developments may change without notice. Trading leveraged products, including contracts for difference (CFDs), involves significant risk and may result in losses exceeding expectations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their financial circumstances and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

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