- Gold trades firm on Tuesday as a softer US Dollar and lower Treasury yields provide support.
- A sharp pullback in Oil prices eases inflation concerns, keeping Fed rate-cut expectations in focus.
- Technically, XAU/USD holds above key support near $5,100, while $5,200 continues to cap the upside.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades on a firm note on Tuesday, building on the previous day’s rebound from levels near $5,000. The precious metal is drawing support from a softer US Dollar (USD) and subdued Treasury yields, while the ongoing US-Iran war keeps market sentiment cautious and continues to cushion the downside.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $5,167, up nearly 0.55% on the day, with sellers defending the $5,200 level.
War headlines drive sharp moves in Oil and global risk sentiment
Markets digested conflicting headlines around the US-Iran war. CBS reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump said, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” adding that the US was “very far ahead of schedule.”
Trump also turned his attention to Oil prices, saying the US could waive some oil-related sanctions and deploy the United States Navy to escort commercial tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. “We’re looking to keep the oil prices down,” Trump said. “They went artificially up because of this excursion.”
However, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said overnight that “it is we who will determine the end of the war,” and warned ships against passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s comments, along with reports that G7 countries are discussing a coordinated release of Oil reserves through the International Energy Agency (IEA), lifted market sentiment, triggering a sharp pullback in Oil prices while global equities rebounded.
Still, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated as the conflict enters its eleventh day, with airstrikes continuing across the Middle East.
Fed rate-cut bets remain in focus
The drop in Oil prices – WTI and Brent dropped 5.84% and 3.69% respectively on Monday – eased global inflation concerns, allowing the USD and Treasury yields to pull back from recent highs as traders continued to price in Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 57.2% probability that the Fed will deliver its first rate cut of 2026 in July, while the chances of a cut in June stand at around 40.8%.
Looking ahead, a light US economic calendar is likely to keep traders focused on geopolitical developments. The ADP Employment Change 4-week average is the only notable data release on the docket, with attention squarely on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures due on Wednesday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report on Friday.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD trades sideways as RSI cools and trend strength weakens
XAU/USD is consolidating within a familiar $5,000-$5,200 range. On the daily chart, the short-term bias remains mildly bullish, with price stabilising above the 20-day Bollinger Band middle line near $5,105, which is acting as immediate support. A sustained break below this zone could trigger a deeper pullback toward the lower Bollinger Band near $4,880.
On the upside, $5,200 remains the key resistance level, and a decisive daily close above this barrier could open the door for a move toward the upper Bollinger Band around $5,330.
Momentum indicators offer a mixed signal on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stabilised above the 50 level, after easing from overbought territory, suggesting bullish momentum is cooling but still intact. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 14 indicates weak trend strength, reinforcing the view that XAU/USD may remain range-bound in the near term.
