Market Overview

• The U.S. and Israel continue their offensive against Iran, which is responding with missile attacks on neighboring countries and maintaining a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Donald Trump has threatened the total destruction of Iran’s infrastructure if a deal is not reached quickly, while simultaneously claiming that ongoing negotiations are taking place in an “excellent atmosphere,” a claim Iran denies. 
• The U.S. president confirmed that the United States is holding talks with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf to end the war, while stressing that it is unclear whether he can be trusted.
• According to recent reports, the Pentagon is preparing for the possibility of ground operations in Iran. Thousands of American soldiers and Marines are being deployed to the region, though the focus is not on a full-scale invasion, but rather on limited raids by special forces and infantry units.
• Jerome Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, balancing the fight against inflation with support for the labor market—goals that are increasingly in conflict. The Fed remains in “wait and see” mode, ignoring the short-term shock from the oil market, but warns that if inflation persists or inflation expectations rise, it may be forced to act.
• As a result of rising tensions in the Gulf region, Wall Street gave back nearly all of the gains made today. The S&P 500 is down 0.1%, the Nasdaq has fallen about 0.5%, while the Dow Jones is holding a gain of roughly 0.3% at the time of this summary before 8 p.m.
• In Europe, the session was broadly positive, with most stock markets posting gains. The UK’s FTSE 100 rose about 1.6%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.9%, Germany’s DAX increased 0.9%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 closed up 0.8%.
• Inflation in Germany accelerated significantly but was in line with market expectations, suggesting that the European Central Bank will maintain its restrictive policy.
• On the back of recent threats from the U.S. administration, Brent crude oil has once again approached the $110 per barrel level.
• In the FX market, the Japanese yen has strengthened sharply in response to warnings from Japanese authorities about a possible intervention to curb its previous weakening.
• On the precious metals market, there has been a partial return of positive sentiment: gold is up 0.7%, surpassing $4,500 per ounce, while silver has gained over 1%, rising above $70 per ounce.
• The cryptocurrency market is also showing gains today. Bitcoin is up 0.7%, testing the $67,000 level, while Ethereum has risen nearly 2.5%, hovering around $2,050.

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