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Japan’s Cabinet Office on Thursday trimmed its fiscal 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.3%, citing higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions that are weighing on household spending and corporate earnings. The mid-year outlook sees a rebound in fiscal 2027, with growth accelerating to 1.1% on stronger consumption and investment. Private consumption growth for fiscal 2026 was cut to 0.9% from 1.3%, while capital expenditure is now expected to rise 2.3%, below the earlier 2.8% projection. Inflation is projected at 2.2%, up from 1.9%, reflecting elevated energy costs. Despite persistent price pressures, nominal wages are forecast to climb 3.1% annually through fiscal 2027, keeping real wage growth positive. The Cabinet Office also expects the primary budget balance to swing back to a JPY 1.4 trillion surplus in fiscal 2027, though the government has placed less emphasis on the balance as its main fiscal discipline measure.
