Bitcoin faces heavy resistance at $81.7K as supply wall blocks rally

• Bitcoin faces $81,700 resistance at its 365-day moving average, a level that remains crucial for confirming a new bull market.
• The 3x Metcalfe band at $83,600 represents the next valuation ceiling, following Bitcoin’s stalled advance toward the 365-day moving average.
• The supply wall between $77,100 and $80,200 has seen 539,000 BTC sold by long-term holders in 2026, making the range a key overhead resistance.

Bitcoin (BTC) has paused between $76,000 and $82,000, as several key resistance levels converge above spot price.

Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average sets key resistance at $81.7K

The top crypto faces its first major technical hurdle with the 365-day moving average, which currently stands at $81,700, according to a Friday report from CryptoQuant. The report noted that Bitcoin’s bull markets have historically begun when price closes above the 365-day moving average, while the 200-day moving average at $70,000 remains the key technical support.

“The 365-day moving average is the first major resistance Bitcoin must overcome to confirm the new bull market,” CryptoQuant wrote.

The recent rally pushed Bitcoin toward the 365-day moving average, where price stalled, and the level acted as resistance.

“A decisive break above it would confirm the new bull market and open room for a new leg up; a rejection keeps Bitcoin range-bound,” the report stated.

Bitcoin’s next valuation hurdle sits at $83.6K

CryptoQuant added that $70,000 remains the technical floor to defend. Beyond the 365-day moving average, Bitcoin faces another resistance level at $83,600 based on the 3x Metcalfe band. The band measures Bitcoin’s network value using active addresses, with the 3x band now sitting just above the 365-day moving average.

CryptoQuant noted that the 3x Metcalfe band stood at $138,000 when Bitcoin reached its $126,000 all-time high in October 2025. The 2x band also aligned with Bitcoin’s price when the cryptocurrency first reached $100,000 in December 2024.

“With price near $78K, the 3x band is the valuation ceiling to clear,” the report said.

The top crypto also faces potential selling pressure as it approaches the upper band of the trader realized price, currently at $88,700. The metric tracks the cost basis of active traders, with Bitcoin currently positioned between the realized price of $63,400 and its upper band.

The report stated that unrealized profit margins become increasingly stretched as price approaches the upper band, historically leading to stronger selling. The report therefore identifies $88,700 as a firm resistance level for any further extension.

“The lower ($55.8K) and minimum ($39.9K) bands sit well below current levels, underscoring that the near-term risk is overhead, not below,” CryptoQuant shared.

Bitcoin’s most immediate obstacle, however, is an on-chain supply wall between $77,100 and $80,200 by long-term holders (LTH). CryptoQuant highlighted that up to 539,000 BTC were sold during a 30-day period in 2026, making it the nearest and heaviest supply resistance above the current price.

“Bitcoin must absorb the overhead supply to advance,” the report said.

Below the market price, CryptoQuant identified a second on-chain cluster between $62,000 and $65,000, where roughly 476,000 BTC were accumulated this year. This zone, along with the $70,000 200-day moving average, provides a defined support area if Bitcoin faces renewed selling.

The report stated that Bitcoin remains caught between substantial overhead resistance and well-defined support, with $81,700, $83,600 and $88,700 representing successive resistance levels.

CryptoQuant argued that the trend is still constructive, but a resistance wall continues to hinder a clear breakout.

BTC is trading at $77,128, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing.

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