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TD Securities strategists argue that recent Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) interventions and talk of joint United States (US)/Japan action have not changed the broader USD/JPY regime. They see momentum allowing a brief dip toward 153.00, but expect the pair to hold above that level and maintain a year-end forecast of 159.00.
Intervention seen as buying time only
“USD/JPY fell sharply to the 200d SMA for the first time in 2026 after two days of aggregate ~$87bn intervention from the MoF and headlines of potential joint intervention from both Japan and the US.”
“Our trend-following model shows USD/JPY trend turned from uptrend to neutral, but it is not yet in downtrend.”
“In the absence of more hawkish BoJ monetary policy and prolonged direct US involvement to intervene JPY, the combination of valuation, positioning, and trend-following would suggest limited short-term USD/JPY downside to 153.00, in our view.”
“For now, we maintain our year-end forecast of 159.00 for USD/JPY.”
