Japanese Yen: Policy shift talk supports JPY – MUFG

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes the Japanese Yen is leading G10 gains after Finance Minister Katayama unexpectedly urged households and the GPIF to increase investments in Japanese financial assets. He stresses these policy shifts will take time, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) credibility still crucial before domestic investors materially reallocate from foreign assets back into JGBs, limiting near-term Yen impact.

Katayama comments lift Japanese Yen

“The yen is the top performing G10 currency today with the move triggered by a remark at a regular press conference by Finance Minister Katayama.”

“In discussing government investment plans Katayama stated that it was now a government priority to “encourage households, as well as pension funds including the GPIF, to increase their investments in Japanese financial assets”. This has come from nowhere and hence the surprise has had a notable impact not just on the yen but on equities and JGBs with yields down over 10bps. “

“These policy shifts take time and ultimately, we would argue there remains an important fundamental fact that needs to fall into place in order for pension funds and other investors to send less capital abroad and invest more in JGBs – confidence in the BoJ and reduced fears over the BoJ being behind the curve.”

“However, this feels like a theme that could get greater focus and encouraged by government policy it could certainly have an impact over time.”

“It’s probably too soon to expect this to have any lasting impact on the yen and as stated above, BoJ credibility and reducing fears over being behind the curve remain key.”

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