- A US recession is likely
- Progress on trade deals is essential to calm markets
- The U.S. economy is relatively strong due to past stimulus
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a US recession is a likely outcome, driven by persistent inflation, slowing growth, and expected credit defaults, although none have emerged yet.
He emphasized that sticky inflation won’t fade quickly and anticipates more credit issues than seen in a long time. While the current market turmoil caused by tariffs doesn’t match the 2008 financial crisis, Dimon urged policymakers to calm markets by showing progress on trade deals, which take time and should aim to strengthen global trade partners, especially in Europe. He noted that massive COVID-era spending temporarily buoyed the U.S. economy, which is still performing relatively well compared to other advanced nations. However, unresolved trade tensions are hurting business activity—IPOs are being canceled and loan deals delayed, impacting smaller companies.
Dimon highlighted the need for tax competitiveness, advocating for higher earned income tax credits over corporate taxes. He also stressed tailored financial regulations for smaller banks.
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