- Markets started the session on a positive note following signals of progress in US–Iran negotiations.
- Vice President JD Vance pointed to the possibility of a “grand bargain,” involving Iran’s economic reintegration in exchange for nuclear concessions. The ceasefire has been holding for about a week.
- Trump stated that he does not expect the ceasefire to be extended, suggesting confidence in a quick agreement. However, his messaging remains mixed — on one hand he describes the conflict as “very close to over,” while on the other he emphasizes that operations are not yet complete. He suggested that the coming days will be decisive.
- Talks are ongoing through diplomatic channels, including with the involvement of Pakistan. Another round of negotiations with high-level US officials is expected. The timeline is tight, and the ceasefire is acting as a deadline. The coming days will be crucial for the outcome of the talks.
- Oil prices continued to decline, with OIL.WTI trading around 91.50 USD per barrel and Brent around 95.60 USD per barrel. Hopes for de-escalation have reduced the geopolitical risk premium. Although the market is pricing in an optimistic outcome of the negotiations, significant risks remain.
- The US is offering economic normalization and global integration in exchange for Iran abandoning its nuclear ambitions. This signals a shift toward a broader strategic framework rather than just a ceasefire agreement.
- Risk-on sentiment improved, supporting equity markets. US indices closed yesterday slightly below their all-time highs, highlighting optimism.
- The Reuters Tankan survey showed the largest drop in sentiment in Japan’s manufacturing sector in three years. Rising energy costs and supply disruptions are negatively affecting the sector. Domestic sectors remain more resilient, but external pressures are increasing.
- Janet Yellen suggested that the Fed may deliver one more rate cut this year despite rising inflation risks. The policy outlook remains highly uncertain.
- Satellite images show that Iran is repairing damage to underground missile bases during the ceasefire. As much as half of the missile infrastructure remains intact. This suggests preparations for potential further escalation.
- The US is offering economic normalization and global integration in exchange for Iran abandoning its nuclear ambitions. This signals a shift toward a broader strategic framework rather than just a ceasefire agreement.
The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.
