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Rabobank’s Global Daily highlights that reported progress on a US-Iran understanding has not removed key risks around the Strait of Hormuz, with only a brief memorandum agreed and major details still unclear. The bank notes conflicting timelines for restoring flows, Iran’s 60‑day toll threat, and incentives on both sides that could still disrupt Oil shipments.
Hormuz reopening and Oil flow risks
“What we are hearing about is the reopening of Hormuz, which Trump claims has already happened: however, ‘mine your language’ on what that means. A US official says it might take 1-2 weeks to get energy flowing through the strait again. Other maritime experts suggest it could take 40-50 days.”
“Recall it then takes weeks for energy cargoes to arrive at their final destinations if/when an exodus of trapped ships begins. That said, this morning three Iranian oil tankers and two ships carrying essential goods reportedly passed the US naval blockade.”
“Iran also states ships can transit Hormuz freely for the 60-day negotiation period with the US, but after that it will charge de facto tolls. That’s something the US opposes and is a significant flashpoint – alongside many others. If you are a crude carrier, once you finally escape Hormuz, do you return knowing a geopolitical deadline is ticking down, or opt for new routes?”
“From Iran’s perspective, there is a case to see the deal collapse within months. Indeed, if Tehran cannot get the benefits promised by the US because it won’t take the steps required of it, then it arguably has little incentive to keep Hormuz open.”
“Why allow energy to flow freely, taking pressure off the US and the world, while the GCC and others build alternative supply chains that reduce the strait’s strategic threat? Use it or lose it makes more sense, geopolitically.”
