Rabobank highlights that a 60‑day US–Iran memorandum of understanding has reduced immediate risks to the global economy by keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, though ship crossings remain limited. The bank notes that Iran may introduce maritime fees after the negotiating period, while President Trump opposes any tolls, leaving future Oil transit costs and geopolitical risk unresolved.

Hormuz deal cuts near term risk

“The US and Iran have signed the memorandum of understanding, and the 60-day deal is now in effect. Both sides are trying to show some good faith. Iran has said that the Strait of Hormuz is open, even though ship crossings have still been limited so far. Meanwhile, the US said it ended its own naval blockade, which is ahead of the 30-day deadline that both sides had agreed on.”

“When talks do happen, the future status of the Strait of Hormuz may remain another contentious issue. The Guardian reports that Iran is planning to introducemaritime feesfor ships crossing the waterway, to cover the costs of managing the Strait. This fee would go into effect after the 60-day negotiating period. The memorandum of understanding only requires Iran to provide safe and free passage for 60 days, but President Trump has expressed his opposition to any toll for ships using the waterway.”

“Nonetheless, the memorandum of understanding removes some of the immediate risks for the global economy and markets. Accordingly, the Bank of England held rates unchanged yesterday, which policymakers consider an “active hold.” Prior to the Iran war, the Bank and money markets had been looking for cuts this year, which means that not cutting already amounts to some degree of policy tightening.”

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