Palm Oil Prices Fall Below MYR 4,700 as Record Inventories and Weaker Crude Oil Weigh on Market Outlook

Malaysian palm oil futures have fallen below MYR 4,700 per tonne, reversing the recent rally as weaker crude oil prices reduce the commodity’s attractiveness as a biodiesel feedstock. The decline comes against a backdrop of record-high inventories, uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand and expectations of increased seasonal production in Malaysia.

Despite the downward pressure, stronger export shipments, a weaker Malaysian ringgit and pre-Diwali buying from India are providing some support. The market is now balancing growing domestic supply concerns against evidence of resilient near-term export demand.

Attention is turning towards Malaysia’s proposed review of crude palm oil export taxes and the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly report due on November 10, which could provide a clearer indication of the supply-demand balance heading into the final part of the year.

Palm Oil Market Snapshot

Current Palm Oil Price Action

Palm oil futures have moved below MYR 4,700 per tonne as the market gives back part of its recent gains. The decline reflects pressure from weaker crude oil prices, which reduce the relative appeal of palm oil as an alternative feedstock for biodiesel production.

The relationship between crude oil and vegetable oils remains an important influence on market sentiment. When energy prices weaken, the economics of biofuel production can become less supportive, potentially reducing demand expectations for palm oil and competing vegetable oils.

However, the market is not experiencing an entirely negative demand picture. Export shipments from Malaysia have increased sharply, while the weaker ringgit is helping to maintain the competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil in international markets.

The result is a market where strong exports are providing support, but the possibility of substantial inventory accumulation is limiting the potential for a sustained recovery.

Supply and Production: Inventory Levels Become a Major Concern

Record-high inventories are emerging as one of the most significant bearish influences on the palm oil market.

Malaysia’s stock levels are expected to exceed 3 million tonnes by the end of the year if production remains elevated during the peak seasonal period. Such an increase would represent a substantial supply overhang and could make it more difficult for prices to establish a sustained upward trend.

The potential accumulation of stocks is also prompting consideration of policy changes. Malaysia’s Finance Ministry is reportedly reviewing a proposal to suspend crude palm oil export taxes.

The proposal reflects concerns about the competitiveness of Malaysian exports and the possibility that high domestic inventories could place further pressure on prices.

If export taxes are suspended, Malaysian palm oil could become more competitive in international markets. However, the ultimate effect would depend on whether additional export demand is sufficient to absorb the expected increase in production.

Export Demand: Strong Shipments Provide Support

Despite concerns over inventories, Malaysian palm oil exports have shown considerable strength.

Cargo surveyors reported that shipments increased by between 46.9% and 67.7% during October 1–25 compared with the same period in September.

Part of this improvement has been attributed to pre-Diwali purchasing from India, one of the world’s largest palm oil consumers. Seasonal buying has provided an important source of demand and helped limit the recent decline in prices.

The key question is whether this export momentum can continue after the seasonal purchasing period.

If shipments remain strong, Malaysia may be able to reduce some of the pressure from rising production. However, if demand moderates after the festival-related buying period, the market could face renewed concerns about the pace of inventory accumulation.

China Demand: Manufacturing Data Sends Mixed Signals

China’s economic performance remains an important consideration for the palm oil demand outlook.

Recent manufacturing indicators have provided conflicting signals. The official manufacturing PMI indicated contraction, while the private-sector survey continued to show expansion.

This divergence makes it difficult to establish a clear picture of industrial momentum and the broader outlook for commodity consumption.

As a major palm oil importer, China’s purchasing activity remains relevant to international market sentiment. Any sustained improvement in manufacturing and domestic economic activity could support demand for vegetable oils.

Conversely, continued weakness in parts of the Chinese economy could limit the pace of import demand and add to concerns about the global supply-demand balance.

Currency Movements: Weaker Ringgit Limits Downside Pressure

The Malaysian ringgit has provided an additional source of support for palm oil prices.

A weaker local currency can make Malaysian exports more attractive to international buyers when prices are converted into other currencies. This can help maintain export competitiveness even when benchmark futures prices are under pressure.

Currency movements are therefore an important part of the wider palm oil outlook, particularly for exporters competing with alternative vegetable oil suppliers.

However, currency support may not be sufficient to offset the combined impact of rising inventories, peak seasonal production and weaker crude oil prices.

Bullish Sentiment: Factors Supporting Palm Oil Prices

1. Strong Malaysian export shipments: October 1–25 shipments increased by 46.9%–67.7% compared with the same period in September, indicating substantial near-term export activity.
2. Indian pre-Diwali purchasing: Seasonal buying from India has supported demand and helped absorb Malaysian supply.
3. Weaker Malaysian ringgit: Currency depreciation improves the competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil for overseas buyers.
4. Potential export tax suspension: If Malaysia suspends crude palm oil export taxes, the resulting improvement in export competitiveness could support international demand.
5. Potential inventory absorption: Continued strong exports could help reduce the pressure created by elevated domestic stocks.

Bearish Sentiment: Factors Weighing on Palm Oil Prices

1. Record-high inventories: Elevated stock levels are limiting the market’s ability to sustain a price recovery.
2. Potential stocks above 3 million tonnes: Expectations of year-end inventory exceeding this level highlight the scale of the supply concern.
3. Weaker crude oil prices: Lower energy prices reduce the relative attractiveness of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock.
4. Peak seasonal production: Higher seasonal output could increase the volume of palm oil entering the market during the coming months.
5. Uncertain Chinese demand: Conflicting manufacturing indicators make it difficult to establish whether import demand will strengthen sufficiently to absorb additional supply.
6. Seasonal export risk: Some of the recent export improvement has been linked to pre-Diwali buying, which may not continue at the same pace once seasonal demand passes.

Palm Oil Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

The immediate outlook remains sensitive to inventory expectations, export performance and crude oil movements.

A sustained recovery above MYR 4,700 per tonne would require stronger evidence that international demand can absorb Malaysia’s expanding supply. Continued export growth, particularly from major consumers such as India and China, would improve the market’s ability to manage elevated stocks.

However, if crude oil remains weak and seasonal production increases as expected, palm oil could face further selling pressure.

Traders will also be watching developments surrounding Malaysia’s proposed export tax suspension. Any formal policy announcement could influence export pricing and the competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil against competing vegetable oils.

The next major catalyst is the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly report on November 10. Production, exports and inventory figures will be particularly important in determining whether the current market weakness reflects temporary pressure or a more persistent supply imbalance.

Supply Outlook

Malaysia’s supply outlook remains a major concern for the market.

Peak seasonal production, combined with already elevated inventories, creates the risk that available stocks will continue to increase through the end of the year.

The prospect of inventories exceeding 3 million tonnes is particularly important because it could restrict price recovery even if export demand remains relatively firm.

A suspension of export taxes could help improve international competitiveness, but the effectiveness of such a measure will depend on whether additional overseas demand can absorb the increased supply.

The November 10 industry report should provide a more detailed assessment of the production and inventory trajectory.

Demand Outlook

Demand remains mixed.

India has provided meaningful support through pre-Diwali purchasing, while the weaker ringgit is helping Malaysian exporters remain competitive.

China presents a less certain picture, with official and private manufacturing surveys indicating different economic conditions. The direction of Chinese import demand will remain an important factor for the broader vegetable oil market.

The relationship between crude oil and biodiesel economics will also remain relevant. A recovery in energy prices could improve the relative attractiveness of vegetable oils for biofuel production, while continued weakness could place additional pressure on demand expectations.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Palm oil is entering a period where supply fundamentals are likely to have greater influence over price direction.

The decline below MYR 4,700 per tonne reflects the combined impact of weaker crude oil prices and concerns about record-high inventories. Strong export shipments and currency competitiveness are helping to limit the downside, but the market needs sustained demand to counter the expected increase in production.

The immediate focus will be on whether October’s export momentum continues and whether Malaysia takes action on the proposed export tax suspension.

The November 10 Malaysian Palm Oil Board report will be a particularly important reference point. Evidence of rising production and expanding inventories could reinforce bearish sentiment, while stronger-than-expected exports or a slower pace of stock accumulation could provide support.

For now, the balance of risks remains cautious, with traders likely to demand clearer evidence of improving supply-demand conditions before committing to a sustained bullish outlook.

Today Markets Analysis

Palm oil’s move below MYR 4,700 per tonne highlights the pressure facing agricultural commodities when rising production coincides with uncertain global demand. Although Malaysian exports have increased significantly, the possibility of year-end inventories exceeding 3 million tonnes remains a major concern.

The market’s next direction will depend on whether export demand can keep pace with seasonal production. Traders should also monitor crude oil prices, as changes in energy markets can influence the economics of biodiesel production and the wider vegetable oil complex.

Currency Hedger View

For businesses involved in palm oil trading, importing, exporting, processing and distribution, the current market creates uncertainty around procurement costs, inventory valuations and future sales margins.

Importers and buyers with future purchasing requirements may benefit from reviewing their exposure to both palm oil price movements and the currencies used to settle international transactions. Exporters holding physical inventory should consider how further price weakness could affect expected revenues and working capital.

Commodity-price exposure and foreign-exchange exposure are separate risks, but they can affect the same commercial transaction. A structured review of purchase commitments, expected sales, payment dates and settlement currencies can help businesses assess whether appropriate hedging arrangements may be suitable.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for general market information and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, a trading recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Commodity and foreign-exchange markets involve risk, and prices can move significantly. Forecasts and market commentary are subject to uncertainty and may change as new information becomes available. Businesses should assess their individual circumstances and obtain appropriate professional advice before entering into hedging or trading arrangements.

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