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The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25bps to 4.35% at its April 2026 meeting, in line with expectations. This marks the third straight hike this year and, in an 8–1 vote, fully unwinds last year’s easing cycle. The decision reflects a material pickup in inflation in H2 2025, which continues to feed into price pressures in 2026. The Bank noted that the earlier rise was driven by stronger capacity constraints in the economy, while higher fuel and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict added to inflationary pressure. Updated forecasts show inflation peaking higher than expected before easing as demand slows and capacity pressures fade. The outlook remains uncertain, with risks skewed to the upside if geopolitical tensions persist and lift energy prices, feeding broader inflation. The Board judged inflation likely to remain above target, warranting the increase, and reiterated a data-dependent approach.
