Soybean Futures Face Monday Test After Weekly Losses as Soymeal Selling Intensifies

Today Markets Analysis

US soybean futures ended Friday mixed, with contracts ranging from modest gains to fractional losses, but the broader weekly and monthly picture remains under pressure. November soybeans finished at $12.22¼ per bushel, gaining 2½ cents on the session but losing 34¼ cents over the week. The November contract has now declined 70¾ cents during October.

The soybean complex is showing diverging performance. Soymeal futures suffered another substantial decline, with December soymeal falling a further $21.50 on the week, while soybean oil recovered on Friday, gaining between 26 and 52 points, despite remaining 93 cents lower for the week.

Export demand continues to provide an important source of support. USDA reported new private export sales, while total soybean export commitments are running 80% above the same period last year. However, speculative investors have reduced their net-long exposure, and the sharp liquidation in soybean meal positions highlights the more cautious sentiment entering November.

With Friday’s session producing mixed price action after a difficult week, Monday’s opening will be important in establishing whether buyers are prepared to defend current levels or whether selling pressure extends into the new month.

Market Snapshot

Current Price Action: Soybeans Stabilise After a Difficult Week

Soybean futures delivered a mixed performance on Friday, with November contracts recovering 2½ cents to close at $12.22¼ per bushel.

January 2027 soybeans finished at $12.34¼, down half a cent, while March 2027 gained a quarter cent to $12.43¾. November 2027 soybeans closed at $12.09, also fractionally lower.

Despite Friday’s modest stabilisation, the weekly performance remains negative. November soybeans lost 34¼ cents during the week and are down 70¾ cents for October.

The national average cash soybean price was reported at $11.63½, up half a cent on Friday. Nearby cash beans were quoted at $11.63¼, gaining a quarter cent, while new-crop cash soybeans increased half a cent to $11.42¼.

The relatively small Friday gains suggest that buyers have not yet established a convincing recovery following the recent decline.

Soymeal Under Pressure as Liquidation Accelerates

Soymeal remains one of the weakest components of the soybean complex.

Futures declined between 70 cents and $4.70 on Friday, while December soymeal was reported down another $21.50 over the week.

CFTC positioning data provides further evidence of the deterioration in sentiment. Managed money reduced its net-long soybean meal position by 34,834 contracts, bringing the total to 169,859 contracts as of Tuesday.

The scale of this reduction suggests substantial liquidation among speculative investors. If selling continues, soymeal weakness could remain a drag on the wider soybean complex.

Traders will be watching whether meal futures begin to stabilise during Monday’s session or whether further long liquidation places additional pressure on prices.

Soybean Oil Recovers on Friday but Weekly Losses Remain

Soybean oil futures moved higher on Friday, gaining between 26 and 52 points.

However, the recovery was not sufficient to reverse the broader weekly decline, with soybean oil still down 93 cents over the week.

The difference in performance between soybean meal and soybean oil highlights the uneven conditions across the soybean processing complex.

A sustained recovery in soybean oil could help offset some of the weakness in meal, but traders will need to see follow-through buying before treating Friday’s gains as a change in direction.

Export Demand Provides a Strong Fundamental Counterweight

Export demand remains one of the more supportive features of the soybean market.

USDA reported a private export sale of 132,000 metric tonnes of 2026/27 soybeans to unknown destinations. A further 165,150 metric tonnes were also reported sold to unknown destinations during the reporting period.

Weekly Export Sales data showed total soybean export commitments at 28.778 million metric tonnes.

This represents an increase of 80% compared with the same period last year. Current commitments have already reached 62% of the USDA export projection, compared with 39% at the equivalent point last year and a five-year average pace of 51%.

The export figures indicate that international demand is running ahead of the previous year’s pace and historical average. This provides an important fundamental support for prices, particularly if export sales remain consistent in the coming weeks.

Speculative Positioning: Managed Money Reduces Soybean Exposure

CFTC data showed speculators holding a net-long position of 185,400 contracts in soybean futures and options as of October 27.

This represented a reduction of 21,536 contracts during the reporting week.

Although managed money remains net long, the reduction indicates that speculative investors have become less bullish.

The positioning data is particularly relevant following October’s 70¾-cent decline in November soybeans. If traders continue reducing exposure, additional selling could emerge when markets reopen.

The next CFTC report will be important in establishing whether Friday’s price stabilisation has encouraged investors to rebuild positions or whether liquidation remains the dominant trend.

Argentina Planting Progress

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 23.3% of Argentina’s soybean crop has been planted.

Planting progress is described as being close to the average for this stage of the season.

The development provides an additional supply-side factor for traders to monitor as the South American growing season progresses. Future weather conditions and planting progress will help determine whether Argentina’s crop outlook remains on track.

For now, the reported planting pace does not indicate a significant deviation from the seasonal average.

October Average Close and Crop Insurance

The average November soybean futures close during October was $12.63, establishing the harvest price option for crop insurance.

This figure provides an important reference point for producers assessing crop insurance coverage and the value of their harvested production.

With November futures closing Friday at $12.22¼, the market is trading below that October average. The difference highlights the price decline experienced during the month and its relevance to producer revenue expectations.

Bullish Sentiment

1. Strong export commitments: US soybean export commitments have reached 28.778 million metric tonnes, running 80% above the same period last year.
2. Sales ahead of seasonal pace: Commitments have reached 62% of the USDA export projection, compared with 51% on average at this stage.
3. New private export business: USDA reported additional sales of 132,000 and 165,150 metric tonnes to unknown destinations.
4. Friday price stabilisation: November soybeans recovered 2½ cents, while nearby and new-crop cash prices also recorded modest gains.
5. Soybean oil recovery: Gains of 26 to 52 points on Friday indicate that selling pressure is not uniform across the soybean complex.

Bearish Sentiment

1. Significant monthly losses: November soybeans have fallen 70¾ cents during October, leaving the market under considerable pressure.
2. Weekly decline: November futures lost 34¼ cents over the week despite Friday’s recovery.
3. Soymeal liquidation: Managed money reduced its net-long soybean meal position by 34,834 contracts.
4. Reduced soybean exposure: Speculators cut their net-long soybean position by 21,536 contracts to 185,400.
5. Weak soymeal performance: December soymeal remains under pressure following another substantial weekly decline.
6. South American crop development: Argentina’s planting progress is continuing near its seasonal average, keeping prospective production in focus.

Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching at Monday’s Open

Monday’s opening session will be important in determining whether Friday’s modest soybean recovery can develop into a more sustained stabilisation.

The market enters November after a difficult October, with November futures down 70¾ cents for the month. However, strong export commitments and fresh USDA-reported sales provide a fundamental reason for buyers to remain interested.

The immediate question is whether export demand can offset speculative liquidation and weakness in the soybean meal market.

Traders will be monitoring:

• Whether November soybeans can hold above Friday’s settlement of $12.22¼.
• Whether January and March 2027 contracts attract renewed buying interest.
• Whether soybean meal stabilises after substantial speculative liquidation.
• Whether soybean oil extends Friday’s recovery.
• Any additional private export sales or changes in weekly export demand.
• Whether managed money continues reducing its net-long soybean position.
• Progress in Argentina’s planting programme and developments across the South American growing season.

Bullish Scenario for Monday

If soybean futures attract buying interest following Friday’s modest recovery, the market could begin to stabilise after October’s substantial losses.

The strong export commitment figures provide a potential source of support. Continued private sales and evidence that US export demand remains ahead of its seasonal pace could improve sentiment.

A recovery in soymeal would also help strengthen the wider soybean complex by reducing the pressure coming from the processing sector.

Bearish Scenario for Monday

If selling resumes at the beginning of the week, November soybeans could struggle to maintain Friday’s settlement level.

Further liquidation by managed money, continued weakness in soymeal and a failure to extend soybean oil’s recovery would reinforce the negative tone.

The market will also be sensitive to whether export demand can continue at its current pace. Any deterioration in sales activity could undermine one of the key supportive factors currently available to the soybean market.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Soybeans enter November with a mixed fundamental picture. Export demand is considerably stronger than last year, with commitments already reaching 62% of the USDA projection. This provides a meaningful source of support and suggests that international buying interest remains active.

However, speculative positioning has weakened, soymeal has experienced substantial selling and November futures have recorded a significant monthly decline.

Monday’s opening should help establish whether Friday’s modest gains represent the beginning of a recovery or simply a pause in the broader correction.

The next direction will depend on the balance between strong export demand and continued liquidation across the futures market. A sustained recovery in soymeal and renewed buying in soybean futures would improve the outlook, while further speculative selling could leave prices vulnerable.

For now, the soybean market remains cautious, with export sales, speculative positioning and South American planting progress likely to remain central to price direction during the coming sessions.

Currency Hedger View

Soybean price movements are particularly important for agricultural merchants, processors, feed manufacturers, food producers and international commodity traders.

Businesses purchasing soybeans, soybean meal or soybean oil across borders may face a combination of commodity-price exposure and foreign-exchange risk. Changes in the underlying commodity price can affect procurement costs, while movements in the settlement currency can further influence the final cost of a transaction.

The current divergence between strong export demand and weakening speculative sentiment highlights why businesses should assess their actual commercial exposure rather than relying solely on futures market direction.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Agricultural futures and commodity markets can be volatile, and trading involves risk. Market participants should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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