
Sugar prices have been fluctuating below 15 cents per pound, remaining more than 10% lower than a year ago, as expectations of abundant global supplies continue to outweigh emerging production risks. The main bearish factor is India, where improved monsoon rains have boosted prospects for a larger sugar crop, while government measures to limit stock holdings aim to ensure adequate domestic availability. Lower crude oil prices have also pressured sugar, as weaker ethanol prices encourage mills, particularly in Brazil, to divert more sugarcane toward sugar production rather than ethanol, increasing supply. However, downside pressure has been partly offset by forecasts of a global sugar deficit in 2026/27, reflecting lower output in Brazil and Thailand and the potential impact of a strengthening El Niño on key producing regions. Meanwhile, the USDA revised US sugar stocks lower following data corrections and projects tighter domestic supplies.





