Financial markets woke up in March to a new reality. Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran triggered major shifts across global markets, particularly in the energy commodities sector. Investor attention is now focused on developments in the Middle East, especially on whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open for tanker traffic.
This does not mean, however, that macroeconomic drivers have disappeared. In the coming week, markets will receive key U.S. inflation data, including CPI and PCE readings. Given the combination of geopolitical risks and upcoming macro releases, three markets are particularly worth monitoring next week: oil (OIL), Bitcoin, and the EURUSD pair.
OIL
Oil prices have risen by nearly 50% since the beginning of the year, pushing quotations to their highest levels since 2024. Supply risks now appear even more serious than during the early phase of the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022.
Although the market is technically in a phase of theoretical oversupply and some shipments can be rerouted through alternative routes outside the Strait of Hormuz, the global market has clearly experienced a shock. If the disruption persists for several more weeks, prices could return to the extreme levels seen two years ago.
It is also worth noting that current price levels are politically difficult for the U.S. consumer to accept. This means the Trump administration may face pressure either to reach a swift military resolution or to push for de-escalation and a ceasefire.
BITCOIN
Bitcoin reached its highest level in a month at the beginning of March. Cryptocurrencies appear to be regaining their appeal as a potential alternative during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, although the experience of 2022 suggests caution when treating them as a true “safe haven.”
Recent gains were largely supported by momentum surrounding the Clarity Act, a key piece of legislation for the crypto sector. If enacted, it could significantly increase institutional interest in digital assets.
Trump has also called on the banking sector to reach an agreement with the digital asset industry and to stop blocking the development of the sector.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair has fallen to its lowest levels since November 2025 and remains vulnerable to further depreciation if commodity prices continue to rise.
The euro is particularly sensitive to higher LNG gas prices, while elevated oil prices limit the European Central Bank’s room for maneuver when it comes to interest rate cuts.
Friday’s U.S. NFP report added further uncertainty. After a very strong January, February brought a drop in employment of nearly 100,000 jobs, alongside a rise in both the unemployment rate and wage growth.
Upcoming inflation readings (February CPI and January PCE) will therefore be crucial. Any signs that price pressures remain persistent could delay expectations for U.S. rate cuts, despite emerging signs of weakness in the labor market, which currently remains difficult to interpret due to the high volatility of recent data.
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