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Geo-PoliticalMarkets
Trump Claims Full Control of the Strait of Hormuz, but Markets Remain Skeptical
- The Wall Street session ended lower, with declines across the broader market. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell 0.3%, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.6%. Markets remain cautious ahead of today’s CPI inflation data.
- Super Micro Computer reported its results after yesterday’s close. The company delivered very strong fourth-quarter results. Revenue came in at USD 11.12 billion, up 93% year over year, while adjusted EPS reached USD 1.70, comfortably beating analysts’ expectations. Importantly, gross margin increased to 17.6%. The biggest positive surprise, however, was the FY27 outlook. The company expects revenue of USD 65–72 billion, compared with the Wall Street consensus of around USD 52.5 billion.
- The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, despite Donald Trump’s claim that the US has “full control” over the strait and that it is open. Shipping traffic data do not confirm this, while further incidents involving commercial vessels in the Bab al-Mandab and Gulf of Oman regions show that risks to maritime shipping remain elevated.
- Gulf states are increasingly looking for alternative routes that bypass Hormuz, suggesting that they view the situation as more than just a short-term crisis.
- Oil prices remain elevated despite President Trump’s assurances that the US has control over the strait.
- Hopes for a US-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continue to clash with further attacks on vessels in the region. On the one hand, there are signs that talks aimed at reopening the strait are making progress. On the other, new incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman show that risks to shipping remain high.
- The EIA has raised its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing production disruptions and transportation challenges.
- Asian equity markets are mixed today, with a rebound in technology stocks and chipmakers providing the main support. The KOSPI is up more than 3%, driven by strong gains in Samsung and SK Hynix, while the Nikkei is more subdued, gaining around 0.9%. Meanwhile, markets in China and India are trading in negative territory.
- Australia will introduce a minimum wage of AUD 31.30 per hour from August 17 for around 250,000 couriers working for delivery platforms. The new regulations will also include accident insurance, increasing costs for food delivery companies.
- Japanese government bond yields are rising sharply as higher oil prices fuel inflation concerns and could prompt the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates. Despite higher yields, the yen is not strengthening for now and remains weak against the US dollar.
- Sentiment in precious metals is positive at the start of the day. Gold is up around 0.6% and is testing USD 4,400 per ounce. Silver, meanwhile, has moved above USD 65 per ounce.
- Cryptocurrencies are also seeing modest gains. Bitcoin is up around 0.3% and is approaching USD 64,000, while Ethereum is rising at a similar pace and is testing the USD 1,900 level.
