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Trump Sets Conditions for Iran. Oil Rises as Hopes for a Quick Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Fade

  • Wall Street ended the session with slight declines. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones edged lower, while the Nasdaq fell around 0.3%.
  • Semiconductor stocks had a weaker session, with Nvidia, AMD, and Intel all closing lower. Intel was hit particularly hard, falling 4% following news of a planned $15 billion share offering. The company plans to raise the funds to expand chip production, which would result in some dilution for existing shareholders.
  • Asian markets are ending the day mixed. South Korea’s KOSPI stood out on the upside, rising for a second consecutive day, helped by a strong rebound in Samsung shares. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is also performing strongly, gaining around 2%. Chinese markets, meanwhile, remain under pressure, with the Hang Seng down around 0.8%.
  • Iran has set several conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including compensation, the lifting of sanctions, and an end to US military operations. In response, Donald Trump has toughened his stance toward Tehran, saying the US will also seek compensation for Americans killed or seriously wounded in conflicts with Iran, with the issue expected to be part of future peace negotiations.
  • As a result, the chances of a quick agreement are fading, while oil prices are rising as markets worry that restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could persist.
  • Precious metals are starting the day slightly lower. Gold is down around 0.2%, falling below $4,400, while silver is down more than 1.5%, trading below $65.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged at 4.35%, in line with market expectations. The RBA still considers inflation to be too high, although weaker economic and labor market data have given the central bank room to wait and assess the situation. The bank remains cautious and has not ruled out further rate hikes if inflationary pressures pick up again.
  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is increasingly considering a rate hike in September, amid concerns that elevated inflation could persist. Markets are placing greater weight on the possibility of a hike at the September 17–18 meeting, which could provide further support for the Japanese yen.
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also made a notable move, refraining from injecting additional cash into the banking system for the first time since June, citing sufficient liquidity. The move appears to be a local liquidity decision rather than a broader shift in monetary policy.
  • Any sustained strengthening of the yen is expected to depend primarily on further BoJ rate hikes, rather than capital repatriation or potential currency interventions. The latest joint US-Japan intervention provided only temporary support for the yen, while the lack of further decisive action from Tokyo has allowed the currency to weaken again.
  • The crypto market is looking somewhat stronger, with Bitcoin and Ethereum starting the day with modest gains.
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