The annual inflation rate in the US likely accelerated for a second consecutive month to 3.1% in September 2025, up from 2.9% in August, which would mark the highest level since May 2024. The pickup is expected to reflect higher prices for food, and tariff-affected goods, as well as a slower-than-expected easing of service-sector inflation, particularly in housing. Meanwhile, core inflation is projected to hold steady at 3.1%, with monthly headline and core CPI readings seen unchanged at 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, suggesting that tariff-related price pressures remain contained. The CPI report, originally scheduled for release on October 15, was delayed due to the government shutdown. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has recalled a portion of its furloughed staff to ensure the data’s publication.
